While overall births in Greece fell significantly by 30%, births to women aged 40 and over grew fivefold since 1990, a new study shows.
This older demographic now represents a much larger share of the total, jumping from just 1.8% in the early 1980s to over 10% in 2023–24. Over the same period, births to women aged 30–39 nearly doubled, whereas births from the under-20 and 20–29 age brackets plummeted.
These findings stem from a study by Byron Kotzamanis, Professor Emeritus of Demography at the University of Thessaly and Director of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies (IDEM).
What is driving the “explosion” of births among older women in Greece?
The study looks at how much does the fertility rate of women aged 40–49 impact current annual indicators—which barely exceed 1.3 children per woman—compared to 30 years ago.
According to Professor Kotzamanis, the answers are clear. “The primary driver of this explosion is the delayed age of childbearing,” he notes.
“However, over the last twenty years, two other factors played a key role: the growing number and proportion of women aged 40 and over within the reproductive population, and advancements in assisted reproductive technology (ART), which an increasing number of couples are utilizing.
Nevertheless, while the contribution of births from women aged 40 and over to annual fertility rates is rising, it remains relatively limited, accounting for less than 8% of these indicators.”
Furthermore, Prof. Kotzamanis emphasizes that advancements in and expanded access to ART will not lead to an increase in births for women over 40 in the coming decades—even if the average age of childbearing continues to rise.
This is because the overall population of women in this age bracket, in the absence of migration, is projected to shrink significantly by 35% between 2025 and 2060, dropping from 770,000 today to 505,000. Consequently, these births will have a limited impact on the completed fertility of generations born after 1980.
Concluding his remarks to the Athens-Macedonian News Agency (AMNA), Professor Kotzamanis warned: “Returning to the birth levels of 2011–2020 (an average of 92,000 annually) is impossible. However, slowing down the decline and eventually achieving a gradual recovery from the lowest point is feasible under two conditions:
- Mitigating the population decline of women aged 25–44, who account for nearly 90% of annual births, through a highly positive net migration balance (more arrivals than departures in this age bracket).
- Increasing the fertility rate of younger generations. This means raising the average number of children from 1.45 (for women born around 1985) to 1.7–1.8 (for those born in the late 2010s) by establishing an exceptionally supportive environment for families and children.
Creating such an environment would slow the rising average age of childbearing and lower today’s exceptionally high childlessness rates. Concurrently, it would empower those who wish to have a second or third child to actually fulfill that desire.”
Related: Greece’s Demographic Decline Makes Birth Rebound Unattainable
See all the latest news from Greece and the world at Greekreporter.com. Contact our newsroom to report an update or send your story, photos and videos. Follow GR on Google News and subscribe here to our daily email!
