Supervolcano of Italy More Likely To Erupt Than Previously Thought

A recent study conducted by scientists from University College London (UCL) and Italy’s National Research Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) reveals that the chances of an eruption occurring in the Campi Flegrei area are higher than what was previously believed.

What is Italy’s Campi Flegrei supervolcano

The Campi Flegrei, also known as the Phlegrean fields, are part of a supervolcano that had a massive eruption around 37,000 years ago. This eruption was incredibly powerful, scoring a 7 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, which is at least 100 times stronger than the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD.

It stands as one of the the largest eruptions to have occurred in the Mediterranean region over the past 1 million years, resulting in the formation of a 12-kilometer-wide caldera.

Approximately 15,000 years ago, the caldera experienced another eruption. Since these monumental volcanic events, there have been 56 smaller eruptions recorded, with the most recent one taking place in 1538.

In less than a month during that eruption, phreatomagmatic activities gave rise to a volcanic cone named Monte Nuovo, or the New Mountain, standing 133 meters tall.

Even in present times, the volcanic field of Campi Flegrei remains active, displaying episodes of increased seismic activity during the 1950s, 1970s, and 1980s. Over the past decade, there has been a more gradual phase of unrest observed. Throughout these periods, tens of thousands of small earthquakes have occurred in the region.

Notably, the coastal town of Pozzuoli has experienced a significant uplift of nearly 4 meters. This uplift is a result of the volcanic activity beneath the surface, causing the land to rise.

Potential rupture of Campi Flegrei

By analyzing the patterns of earthquakes and the rate at which the ground is uplifted, and considering the known values of rock strength, the researchers have reached a conclusion. They have found that certain areas of the supervolcano have been subjected to significant stretching, reaching a point very close to potential rupture.

The recent rise in seismic activity can be attributed to the infiltration of volcanic gases and fluids into fissures within the rock. These substances fill the crust, which is approximately three kilometers thick, above the magma chamber, resembling the absorption of a sponge.

Supervolcano near Naples can erupt at any time

A new study by researchers from London and Bologna shows that the Campi Flegrei, the Phlegraean Fields near Naples, are more unstable than previously thought.This makes an eruption of the European supervolcano more likely.#europe pic.twitter.com/P2dk5NeoRI

— Investing (@Tarim44010540) June 11, 2023

The rocks comprising the crust can react to the increasing pressure in two distinct manners: elastically, by bending, or inelastically, by fracturing.

Based on the pattern of earthquakes observed since 2020, it appears that the rock is responding in an inelastic manner, giving rise to the formation of fractures below the Earth’s surface. These open fractures can serve as pathways for the magma to make its way to the surface, potentially leading to an eruption.

Predictions about eruptions

The research team emphasized that their model does not provide specific predictions regarding eruptions. However, it does indicate an increased likelihood of such an event occurring, as the strength of the rock gradually diminishes over time.

Dr. Stefano Carlino, a coauthor of the study from the Vesuvius Observatory, highlighted that “It’s the same for all volcanoes that have been quiet for generations. Campi Flegrei may settle into a new routine of gently rising and subsiding, as seen at similar volcanoes around the world, or simply return to rest. We can’t yet say for sure what will happen. The important point is to be prepared for all outcomes.”