China’s President Xi Jinping welcomed US President Donald Trump to Beijing on Wednesday with a somber reflection on the weight of history. Invoking the “Thucydides Trap”—the historical theory that a rising power and an established hegemon are frequently destined for war—Xi posed a fundamental question to his American counterpart:
“The world has reached a new crossroads: can China and the United States overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new model of relations? Can we face global challenges together and provide greater stability to the world? Can we, in the interest of our world, our two peoples, and the future of humanity, build a brighter future for our bilateral relations?” he continued.
The summit in China is widely viewed as a pivotal moment for the “negotiation of the century,” as the world’s two largest economies grapple with disputes ranging from trade and artificial intelligence to the conflicts in Iran and the Taiwan Strait.
Thucydides Trap in ancient Greece
Xi Jinping reminded the world that the lessons of the Peloponnesian War, contested between ancient Athens and Sparta, still apply to the complex geopolitical landscape of the 21st century almost 2,500 years later.
Fought between 431 BC and 404 BC, the Peloponnesian War plunged Greece into turmoil, as the two superpowers of the day – Athens and Sparta – fought for hegemony over the Greek world.
Greek historian Thucydides famously chronicled the war, seeking to explain why Athens and Sparta were destined for conflict.
Today, some historians and International Relations scholars think that Thucydides can offer insights into the growing tensions between the two superpowers of our time – the United States and China. They worry that these two superpowers may fall into “Thucydides’ Trap” and plummet headlong into a deadly confrontation.
The Thucydides’ Trap in the modern world
According to International Relations scholar Graham Allison, the Thucydides’ Trap is “a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one.”
Allison quotes Thucydides, who explained, “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” According to Allison, this pattern of behavior was not isolated to the Peloponnesian War. The scholar claims it has occurred no less than sixteen times over the past 500 years.
Of the sixteen historical cases that Allison identifies, twelve resulted in a full-scale war, while only four avoided violent conflict. The pattern stems from a fundamental power dynamic: a rising power disrupts the established order, challenging the dominance of the ruling state. This creates a cycle of fear, miscalculation, and mutual suspicion, escalating tensions to the point where war often seems unavoidable.
In the case of ancient Greece, Sparta viewed Athens’ rapid expansion of power, particularly its maritime empire, as a direct threat to its dominance in the region, leading to a breakdown in diplomacy and eventual war.
The US and China
Allison and others applied the Thucydides’ Trap concept to analyze modern geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China.
As the long-standing global hegemon, the US faces the rise of China as an economic, technological, and military power. This dynamic echoes the conditions Thucydides described: the fear within the ruling power (the US) and the ambition of the rising power (China) create a volatile environment.
While the modern world includes nuclear deterrence, global interdependence, and international institutions, the structural stress of power transition remains a key driver of conflict risk.
Indeed, recent tensions between the US and China have escalated across military, economic, and technological domains, underscoring a growing strategic rivalry.
Militarily, the Pentagon reported that China has expanded its nuclear arsenal to over 600 operational warheads, with projections to exceed 1,000 by 2030. This and increased Chinese military maneuvers near Taiwan raised regional security concerns and strained US-China relations.
Beijing announced a 2026 defense budget of $281 billion, marking a 7% increase from the previous year. While this official figure remains below 1.5% of China’s GDP, international observers note that actual spending is likely much higher when accounting for research and development, paramilitary forces, and regional contributions, reflecting a disciplined but steady pivot toward technology-intensive “intelligentized” warfare.
Economically, disputes persist in the global trade arena. Donald Trump’s second term trade war, which escalated rapidly in early 2025, has profoundly reshaped the Chinese economy by accelerating “de-risking” and forcing a shift in global supply chains. Following his return to office, the administration launched the “Liberation Day” tariffs, which saw average levies on Chinese goods surge by as much as 145 percentage points by April 2025.
This aggressive stance caused China’s share of U.S. imports to plummet to just 9% by the end of 2025—down from 22% prior to the original 2018 trade war. While a temporary truce in late 2025 capped reciprocal tariffs at 30%, the volatility has driven major manufacturers to diversify away from China, leading Beijing to implement strict retaliatory measures
Technological competition remains another critical flashpoint. The US recently revised its science and technology agreement with China to narrow its scope to basic research, excluding sensitive areas such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. This update reflects concerns over intellectual property theft and the strategic implications of technological advancements.
While China seeks to challenge US dominance in emerging technologies, the US aims to safeguard its innovation ecosystem. These developments illustrate the multifaceted nature of US-China tensions, driven by structural competition, mutual suspicion, and efforts by both nations to secure their global influence in an increasingly interconnected world.
Criticism of the Thucydides’ Trap Theory
Critics of the Thucydides’ Trap theory argue that it oversimplifies complex international relations and overstates the inevitability of conflict. They point out that historical examples vary widely in context, and that successful management of great power transitions depends on diplomacy, mutual accommodation, and restraint.
For instance, the peaceful transition of global leadership from the British Empire to the United States in the 20th century is often cited as evidence that war is not inevitable.
However, proponents counter that such cases are exceptions rather than the rule and that avoiding the Thucydides’ Trap requires extraordinary foresight and effort from the rising and ruling powers.
The relevance of Thucydides’ insights in the modern era highlights the enduring lessons of history. While the Peloponnesian War unfolded in a vastly different context, the underlying dynamics of power, fear, and rivalry resonate strongly today. Understanding these patterns can help policymakers navigate the precarious balance of great power competition, emphasizing the importance of dialogue, cooperation, and managing the structural tensions inherent in such rivalries.
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