The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, has issued a sobering warning to the aviation sector in Europe: the continent has “maybe six weeks or so” of jet fuel left.
Speaking to the Associated Press from his office in Paris, Birol cautioned that unless oil supplies blocked by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East are restored, flight cancellations will begin “soon.”
Birol described the current situation as “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” largely triggered by the disruption of vital supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Referencing the legendary rock band, he noted the grim irony of the geography: “In the past, there was a group called ‘Dire Straits.’ It’s a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy.”
The IEA chief emphasized that the crisis would manifest in “higher petrol prices, higher gas prices, and high electricity prices.” While the impact is global, Birol pointed out that the economic pain is uneven.
Flights in Europe may be cancelled due to a lack of jet fuel
“The countries that will suffer the most will not be those whose voices are heard a lot,” he said, identifying developing nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America as the most vulnerable. However, he was clear that for the West, the clock is ticking:
“No country is immune to this crisis.” For European travelers, the theoretical becomes practical very quickly. “I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel,” Birol warned.
With the final pre-conflict fuel cargoes having already docked in Europe and alternative supplies from the U.S. failing to fill the gap, the aviation industry faces a summer of unprecedented “demand destruction.” Without a permanent reopening of key waterways, Birol concluded, “Everybody is going to suffer.”
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