A 6.2-magnitude earthquake that struck early Wednesday afternoon, injuring at least 150 people, has reignited fears of a far more catastrophic event in Istanbul.
The North Anatolian Fault — one of the most active and dangerous in the world — runs just south of Istanbul. The segment near the city has not ruptured since the devastating 1999 İzmit earthquake, which killed over 17,000 people.
Seismologist Mustafa Erdik, speaking to Haber, highlighted the potential severity of what could come. “We’ve seen a rupture over a 9-kilometer stretch,” he said.
Responding to fears that the remaining 120 kilometers of the fault would break, Erdik replied cautiously: “Let’s hope it doesn’t happen — but we must view this as a release of energy. A 7.2-magnitude quake would be 32 times more powerful than Wednesday’s.”
Professor Efthimios Lekkas, president of Greece’s Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (OASP) said International seismologists — from Turkey, France, and Japan — agree that a significant rupture is overdue. The segment affecting Istanbul could potentially unleash a quake of up to 7.5 magnitude. “The question isn’t if, but when — and whether the entire fault or just part of it will break.”
Lekkas warned that while modern neighborhoods near Istanbul’s new airport are built to seismic standards, older areas — particularly the historic heart of the city — remain highly vulnerable. “Hagia Sophia could sustain severe damage. Whether it collapses or not, we simply don’t know. But the risk is substantial.”
Hagia Sophia is at risk of a huge earthquake in Istanbul
Of particular concern is the structural stability of the Hagia Sophia, a UNESCO World Heritage Site that has stood for more than 1,500 years. A video from November 2023 showed a chunk of concrete falling from its dome — perilously close to visitors. Experts fear it might not withstand a strong earthquake.
Renowned Turkish historian İlber Ortaylı previously expressed concern over the monument’s structural integrity following its 2020 reconversion into a mosque, arguing that the change affects its stability during seismic events.
Echoing these concerns, Professor Efthimios Lekkas, president of Greece’s Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (OASP), told iefimerida that both environmental wear and interior climate changes caused by mass tourism have further weakened the Hagia Sophia. “It’s not made of marble like the Parthenon, but of older materials that have suffered from centuries of weathering and alterations in the subsoil,” Lekkas explained. “Its static elements are compromised.”
In response, Turkish authorities have recently initiated reinforcement work on the Hagia Sophia, particularly focusing on the main and secondary domes.
Turkish media report that lighter, more resilient materials are being used in the restoration effort. Still, many experts warn that urgent and comprehensive preservation plans are essential to ensure the monument’s survival in the event of a major quake.
Related: Seismologists Warn of Earthquake and Tsunami Danger in Istanbul
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