European Elections Could Transform Greek Politics

At the heart of an unstable and turbulent region, Greek politics stand at a political crossroads with the country’s current political landscape shaped by the dominant presence of the center-right New Democracy party, led by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

Despite being shaken by a number of political scandals and growing discontent, the strongest party in Greece maintains a significant lead in every poll although there has been a recent downward trajectory. This is evidence of the deep-rooted influence that Mitsotakis himself, as well as his party, enjoy within the Greek political sphere.

However, the upcoming European elections loom large and could reshape the political terrain of Greece for the years to come.

The Mitsotakis government and its challenges

The tenure of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has been marked by numerous controversies that have tested the strength of his administration in the past five years.

The most notable issue among these was the infamous wiretapping scandal, dubbed the “Greek Watergate.” This scandal, which broke out in the summer of 2022, raised serious concerns about the privacy of politicians, businessmen, journalists, and even high-ranking military officials in addition to broader concerns about government overreach. It forced Mitsotakis’ trusted private secretary, Gregory Demetriades, to resign and raised questions about the PM’s involvement in the wiretapping scandal.

This incident, coupled with the tragic Tempe train crash of February 2023, sparked widespread public outrage, putting the Greek government’s crisis management capabilities under scrutiny.

Although the Tempe train crash happened over a year ago, it continues to rock the center-right government. A parliamentary inquiry into the circumstances that led to the disaster only finished very recently with the political opposition in Greece accusing the government of trying to cover up administrative, political, and even criminal responsibilities of the then Transport Minister Kostas Karamanlis and other officials.

Amidst all these challenges, the Greeks also have to deal with an ever-escalating cost-of-living crisis that remains at the top of concerns for ordinary people. Soaring prices, particularly of food, energy, and housing, along with the broader international economic uncertainty have become pressing issues that cast an ever-growing shadow over the government’s ability to deal with what matters most in the everyday life of the Greeks.

Despite these hurdles, Mitsotakis managed a landslide victory in the May and June 2023 elections, throwing SYRIZA, the main left-wing opposition party into a long-lasting crisis that continues to this day.

Within the last twelve months, the political landscape in Greece became further complicated by the emergence of brand new political entities and the resurgence of extremist, ultra-conservative, and far-right ideologies. The unprecedented fragmentation of the political system along with the legacy of the ten-year economic crisis that started in 2008, have given rise to new political groupings, which challenge the dominance of traditional political groups. This evolving dynamic hints at yet another potential new realignment with the upcoming European elections poised to serve as a critical milestone.

The outcome of the European elections that are scheduled to take place between the 6th and 9th of June could either bolster the mandate of Mitsotakis or signal a major shift in the political winds. There will be implications for both domestic policies and Greece’s role on the European stage in general.

The weakened center-left opposition

Based on recent developments, the two main left and center-left parties of the country, SYRIZA and PASOK, face contrasting prospects in the upcoming European elections. SYRIZA, who governed Greece between 2015 and 2019 with the support of the small populist right-wing ANEL party, has been plagued by internal divisions since the election of its new leader Stefanos Kasselakis in September 2023.

There, several prominent members defected in protest of his leadership style and ideological direction, accusing him of bringing lifestyle choices ahead of ideology. Opinion polls showed SYRIZA trailing between second and third place behind PASOK. However, recently, the party appears to be pulling ahead of PASOK, securing second place in the polls.

Meanwhile, PASOK, Greece’s historical social-democrat party that governed Greece for decades in the past, has seen a resurgence under the leadership of Nikos Androulakis. Its vote share increased in recent national elections. PASOK gained 11.8 percent in 2023 compared to a mere 8.1 percent in 2019. Many believe the party could easily take on SYRIZA and establish itself as the new main opposition. However, this outcome currently seems less likely.

PASOK’s strong performance in the 2023 local and regional elections, winning key cities like Athens and Thessaloniki, pointed to its potential rising political influence, but the party’s popularity may have peaked.

In the latest poll published by Pulse for Greece’s SKAI TV, PASOK ranked third with 12.5 percent behind SYRIZA who polled 15 percent.

Both parties will need to articulate a clear vision to mobilize voters in the upcoming European elections and should consider the possibility of collaborating to improve their odds of challenging Mitsotakis’ political dominance.

Δημοσκόπηση ΣΚΑΙ τώρα.
Διενεργήθηκε από 1 – 3 Απριλίου. pic.twitter.com/dcOL1lTRLF

— Christos Tassoulas (@xtassoulas) April 3, 2024

The political landscape in Greece

The Greek Parliament has never been more diverse and fragmented. The political spectrum is now more varied than ever with a total of nine political groups being represented in the national assembly of the Greeks. Despite governing for five years now, the 158 MPs-strong New Democracy party continues to hold a substantial lead over adversaries.

The resurgence of the far-right in Greek politics is a particularly notable development. A total of three Parliament groups stand farther to the right than the New Democracy party. This reflects a much broader European trend whereby economic uncertainty, migration, and discontent with the consequences of the war in Ukraine along with other social issues have fueled nationalist and populist sentiments. The far-right’s narrative in Greece has found resonance among certain segments of the population, adding another layer of complexity to the political landscape of the country.

This new resurgence of the far-right in Greece was marked by the entrance of three parties to the parliament: Spartans, Niki, and Greek Solution. They collectively won nearly 13 percent of the vote and 34 parliamentary seats.

The Spartans, a previously obscure and unknown party, surged to become the fifth largest force, backed by jailed Golden Dawn leader Ilias Kasidiaris.

Niki (Greek for Victory), on their behalf, espouses ultra-Orthodox, anti-abortion, and anti-woke agenda, comparable to the far-right in the US. Greek Solution takes a more pro-Russian, ultranationalist stance on issues such as the war in Ukraine and Greco-Turkish relations.

Analysts warn this could normalize extreme ideologies and influence government policies in Greece. This would be similar to many other European nations. Some political commentators have warned the revival of the far-right, enabled by the conservative government’s rightward shift on issues such as immigration, marks a worrying democratic backslide mirroring trends in countries like Italy, the Netherlands, and Hungary. Additionally, recent polls show a significant resurgence of one of the three far-right parties, the “Greek Solution.” The party is expected to get around—if not more—than 10 percent of the vote in the upcoming European elections, a first for a strongly right-wing party in Greece.

🗳️ Healthy democratic institutions require strong civic engagement. Ombudsmen from across Europe encourage EU citizens to exercise their right to shape European democracy and vote in the European elections on 6-9 June 🇪🇺 #UseYourVote

Full statement here: https://t.co/zxYDr0s4gJ pic.twitter.com/DBuHAAyz3J

— European Ombudsman (@EUombudsman) April 3, 2024

Upcoming EU elections and their impact on Greek politics

European elections are fast approaching, and with them comes the potential to reshape the Greek political scene once again. However, no pollster currently expects groundbreaking changes to the image of the Mitsotakis government. His party gained 33 percent of the vote in the last European elections of May 2019, a threshold that is probably going to be exceeded by the center-right party yet again unless something major changes.

Traditionally, these elections for the European Parliament are more than just a measure of the European Union’s pulse. They are a de-facto referendum on national governments and their policies across the Union. For the Mitsotakis administration in Greece, the stakes could not be higher. The elections will serve as a barometer for public opinion, potentially reinforcing the government’s mandate or undermining its authority with the first cracks in years becoming now more apparent than ever.

The stance of the European Parliament on critical issues, such as the EU’s support for Ukraine and the defense of democratic values, will play a significant role in shaping voter preferences in Greece as well as in other EU member-states. What remains unknown however, is how and to whose advantage.

For new and smaller parties, the elections, as always, offer a chance to gain a foothold on the European stage and influence policy from within. For the far-right, success in the European elections could translate into increased legitimacy and political capital at home. For example, the New Left party, which is newly formed by SYRIZA breakaways, aims to elect its first MEP to consolidate its presence in the Greek and European political spheres and avoid oblivion. On the other hand, the far-right ultra-conservative Greek Solution party aims to capitalize on the discontent of the conservative electorate of Mitsotakis, following his decision to legalize same-sex marriage a few months ago.

What will the future hold for Greek politics?

The scandals that have rocked the Mitsotakis government, coupled with the economic and social challenges facing the Greek people for many years now, have set the stage for a highly consequential electoral battle that’s on the horizon. The outcome of these elections will act as an indicator for the future direction on the European stage and Greece’s role within it.