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Greek Think Tank IOBE Estimates 1.5%-2% Recession in 2015 for Greece

The Greek think-tank, Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research (IOBE) released its third quarterly report for 2015 on the current state and future of the Greek economy.
The think tank highlighted that significant reforms must be undertaken for the Greek economy to recover, noting the fact that both the Greek government and the main political opposition support the new bailout is a positive development that reduces political risk factors in the country.
“One more mistaken interpretation of the facts would be that the country’s positive path is supposedly secured or independent of current choices. The exact opposite is true and the next few months are very important. With the recent agreement a last margin for adjustment of the Greek economy was given. There is a useful two-year period, but for positive results from new investments to manifest during this period, major stabilizing moves must be made within the next weeks or at least the next few months,” IOBE warns.
Greece’s 2015 GDP reduction will fluctuate between 1.5% and 2%, which is a slight improvement compared to the think tank’s previous estimates. The decreased recession rate is justified by the 1.6% growth in Greek GDP during the second quarter of 2015.
IOBE further believes that if the right conditions are fulfilled Greece could return to growth in the second half of 2016, this a more optimistic estimate compared to the International Monetary Fund which predicted a 2.3% Greek GDP reduction in 2015, in a report released last week.


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