Iceland will be voting in a referendum on Saturday on whether to reopen negotiations with the European Union (EU), reviving a matter the country put on hold more than a decade ago.
The August 29 referendum will not determine whether Iceland joins the EU. Instead, voters will decide whether the country should resume accession talks with Brussels. The result is advisory, meaning any eventual decision on EU membership would come later. The vote comes as support for reopening negotiations appears extremely close. A recent Maskína poll put support at 51.3%, compared with 48.7% opposed, leaving the outcome within a narrow margin. The bigger question, however, is why Iceland is looking to the EU again after abandoning its previous accession process thirteen years ago.
The Iceland referendum: From crisis to a return to the EU
Iceland applied for EU membership in July 2009, shortly after the country’s banking system collapsed during the global financial crisis. The European Commission issued a favorable opinion on the application in 2010, and formal accession negotiations began that same year. By the time Iceland put the talks on hold in 2013, twenty-seven negotiating chapters had been opened, eleven of which had been provisionally closed.
In March 2015, Iceland’s government formally asked that the country no longer be regarded as an EU candidate. Now, the issue is back on the ballot, but Iceland’s relationship with Europe has never really disappeared.
Iceland is already deeply connected to Europe
Iceland is a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), which gives it full access to the EU single market. It is also part of the Schengen area and the European Free Trade Association. This results in an unusual position. Iceland participates extensively in Europe’s economic system and applies a significant amount of EU-related legislation, but it does not have voting rights in the EU institutions that ultimately make those decisions.
Iceland can influence EU legislation during the preparatory stages through the EEA system, but the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) itself acknowledges that EEA countries have limited influence once legislation reaches the EU’s formal decision-making stage. That is at the heart of the argument for membership. Iceland already accepts many of the benefits and regulations of the European market while remaining outside the political institutions that make the policies.
Then there is the fish
Few issues make the EU debate more sensitive in Iceland than fishing. Marine products accounted for 38.9% of the value of Iceland’s total goods exports in 2025, according to Statistics Iceland. Control over fishing grounds is also closely tied to Iceland’s modern national history. The country had several disputes with Britain over fishing rights in the 20th century as it expanded control over its waters. That history helps explain why EU fisheries policy remains politically difficult.
Icelandic opponents of membership fear that joining the EU could weaken national control over an industry that is both economically vital and closely linked to sovereignty. Supporters argue that a new negotiating process would allow Iceland to defend its interests at the negotiating table. Fishing was already among the most sensitive issues during the previous accession negotiations.
Why the debate is now returning
The circumstances differ from those of 2013. Iceland is facing renewed economic concerns, including questions over its currency and the cost of living. At the same time, Europe’s security environment has changed dramatically since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Iceland’s location also strengthens its strategic importance in the North Atlantic. The country is a NATO member but does not maintain a conventional standing army, making its relationships with European and North American allies central to its security policy.
These changes have helped bring the EU question back into the political debate in Iceland, sparking the need for an upcoming referendum. Reuters has reported that economic concerns, the war in Ukraine, and changing geopolitical conditions have all contributed to renewed interest in membership talks. For the European Union, meanwhile, Iceland’s possible return to the accession process would come at a time when enlargement has regained importance across Europe.
What happens if the people of Iceland vote “yes” in the EU referendum?
A “yes” vote in the referendum would not automatically make Iceland an EU member. It would, nonetheless, authorize the reopening of accession negotiations. The process would then involve negotiations over issues such as fisheries, agriculture, economic and monetary policy, the customs union, and other areas that were left unresolved when the earlier talks were suspended. Only after those negotiations would Icelanders face the question of whether to accept the final membership terms. A “no” vote would leave Iceland’s existing relationship with Europe largely unchanged.
That is why Saturday’s referendum is not simply choice between Europe and independence. Iceland is already deeply integrated with Europe. The real question is whether Icelanders now believe they would be better served by remaining outside the EU while retaining access to its single market or by joining the political system that is responsible for much of the legislation governing that market. Thirteen years after Iceland walked away from the negotiating table, voters are being asked whether it is time to return.
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