Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are creating new risks for Greek exports, according to Alpha Bank’s latest report, which warns of mounting pressure on global trade.
The bank outlines three main channels, including higher production costs, supply chain disruptions, and weaker demand from key trading partners, through which the instability could affect exports.
Greek exports after a strong decade face new uncertainty from the Middle East
After a strong decade of steady growth, supported by improved competitiveness and a robust manufacturing sector, Greek exports now face new uncertainty from the Middle East. This progress is reflected in the shifting composition of exports. Goods accounted for 48% of total exports in 2025, up from 39% in 2009. Trade with the United States also remained stable in 2025 despite tariff uncertainty.
Still, the outlook for 2026 is becoming more fragile. Alpha Bank warns that ongoing geopolitical instability, combined with disruptions in global oil supply, will likely weigh on international trade. At the same time, uncertainty around major maritime routes remains a key concern.
Middle East exposure adds to risk
Exports to thirteen Middle Eastern countries accounted for 6.4% of Greece’s total exports in 2025, making the region an important, although not dominant, destination for Greek goods. At the same time, Greece remains closely tied to Europe, with more than 57% of exports going to European Union countries, many of which are also facing energy-related pressures.
Within the Middle East, Lebanon, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia were among the main destinations for Greek exports, with mineral fuels making up a significant share of shipments to those markets.
EU trade deals could create new openings
Despite the rising risks, Alpha Bank points to potential opportunities through European Union trade agreements with countries such as India and Australia.
According to estimates cited in the report, EU exports to India could double by 2032, while trade with Australia could grow by as much as 33% over the next decade. Greek companies could benefit if they adopt targeted strategies to strengthen their international presence.
Greek exports show resilience in 2025 despite Middle East risks
Greek exports remained resilient in 2025, reaching €48.7 billion (about $57.6 billion), slightly below the €50 billion (about $58.9 billion) recorded in 2024, mainly due to a decline in petroleum product exports.
Excluding petroleum products, however, exports reached a record €37 billion ($43.6 billion). Several sectors recorded growth during the year:
- Food: +9.4%
- Beverages and tobacco: +7.8%
- Chemicals: +3.9%
- Industrial products: +3.4%
In contrast, mineral fuel exports fell by nearly 15%. Even so, they still accounted for the largest share of total exports at 26%. Manufacturing continued to dominate Greece’s export profile, accounting for roughly 70% of total exports. Over the past decade, the sector’s total value has nearly doubled.
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