The latest report by the Laboratory of Demographic and Social Analyses of the University of Thessaly paints a grim picture of the current state and future demographic outlook of Greece, as the country’s population continues to age disproportionately and decline sharply.
Data shows that the total population of Greece has declined by half a million over the last thirteen years, while the birth-death ratio is projected to remain negative until at least 2050, pointing towards a shift in the migratory flows balance as the most imminent solution to the problem.
According to the report, the reasons for this significant decline in population are not only related to demography but more generally to the social challenges that Greece has faced in recent decades and the worsening living conditions for both native Greeks and migrants.
Half a million population decrease in only 13 years in Greece
Greece has a relatively high aging population and one of the lowest annual fertility rates in the European Union, alongside a steady rise in childlessness. An estimated 23 percent of the population is over 65, and in 2023, the number of people above that age was nearly one million higher than the 0–14 age group.
In the last thirteen years, between 2011 and 2024, Greece has consistently been recording more deaths than births, and when combined with negative migration flows, this led to a population decline of nearly 500,000 people.
In 2023, only 72,300 births were recorded in Greece—just half the average annual births between 1951 to 1970. The population decline would have been apparent much earlier if not for the inflow of migrants since 1990, which temporarily offset Greece’s falling birth rates.
Since 2011, however, the so-called “brain drain,” which has driven thousands of young Greeks abroad, combined with the return of migrants from previous decades to their home countries, has made the negative natural population balance impossible to miss.
The role of migratory flows and worsening living conditions in Greece
The Laboratory of Demographic and Social Analyses of the University of Thessaly has emphasized the role of incoming and outgoing migratory flows in the demographic problem, observing how Greece failed to ensure that people of productive and reproductive ages remained in the country between 2011-2021.
This applies both to Greeks seeking better living conditions abroad and to foreign migrants who passed from and stayed in Greece but were not integrated into the population.
A previous study by Lambrianides and Sykas, released in 2023, shows that Greeks were lured abroad first and foremost by better employment conditions rather than better wages. They were also driven away from Greece due to integrity issues and the lack of an open-minded, safe, and inclusive society. A comparative study by Kouzis in 2022 confirms that Greece demonstrated the most worsening employment conditions in Europe between 2009 to 2019.
Multiple factors discourage younger Greeks from establishing a family, leading to a decline in the population of Greece
Low work-life balance, minimal benefits for families and childcare, unaffordable housing, low wages, and high cost of living, all confirmed by respective studies, are listed in the report among the causes that discourage or delay young people in Greece from establishing their own families.
One in three young respondents aged 17 to 34 said they struggled to make ends meet each month, while 37.3 percent was considering moving abroad for a better job.
“There is a framework of life in Greece—first of all, the living and working conditions, for both Greeks and foreigners—that needs radical improvements in almost all areas of everyday life: housing, work, health, education, family and child benefits, etc,” the report states.
The study concludes that the discourse around the solution of the demographic problem of Greece should focus on ways for improving the living conditions of young people in the country, whether young Greeks or the very young refugee and migrant populations who, from time to time, pass through and reside in the country, even for seasonal work in tourism.
“This means that we must, among other things, also focus on migration policies,” it suggests.
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