The increasingly tense standoff between Iran and Israel, which now threatens to escalate into open conflict, poses several distinct challenges for Greece.
Given Greece’s geostrategically important position at the maritime crossroads between Asia, Africa, and Europe, any wider conflagration in the Middle East could easily spill over into the Eastern Mediterranean.
Having intercepted most of the drones and missiles launched against Israel, the world is now anxiously awaiting the Israeli government’s response. Although the likelihood of a full-blown conflict remains low, there is a distinct possibility that escalation and miscalculations could worsen the situation.
Greece’s response to Iran’s attack against Israel
The geostrategic rivalry between Israel and Iran is decades old, but the attack on Saturday evening was the first time that Iran directly struck Israeli soil. According to the Israeli military, Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles against Israel, but the vast majority of these were intercepted.
Approximately 99 percent of the drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles were intercepted, said Israeli Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, a military spokesman. Nevertheless, at least nine countries were involved either in the act of assisting Israel’s interception efforts or as launch pads for the attack, demonstrating the potential for any escalation between Iran and Israel to engulf the wider region in a broader crisis.
The government of Greece responded to Iran’s attack against Israel with a strong condemnation, stating that the drone and missile strike was a “significant escalation.”
“These are extremely unpleasant and very disturbing developments that are sparking a new conflagration in our wider neighborhood and of course in the Middle East,” commented Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.
“I want to start with the clear and unequivocal condemnation of the Greek Government and me personally against Iran’s attack on Israel,” he added in a message on Facebook.
I strongly condemn the attacks launched by Iran against Israel. Αny escalation is a threat to regional stability and security. We stand with Israel and urge all sides to show restraint.
— Prime Minister GR (@PrimeministerGR) April 14, 2024
The Greek government’s diplomatic stance
In recent years, bilateral relations between Greece and Israel have grown stronger. The two countries, together with the Republic of Cyprus, have increased their levels of cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean with a particular emphasis on energy and security.
Last year, representatives from the three countries met to finalize an energy deal, including a mammoth electricity project connecting their power grids, and a potential future regional natural gas pipeline.
In the realms of defense and security, Greece and Israel have cooperated to facilitate the establishment of the International Air Force Training Centre in Kalamata and participation in the 3+1 collaboration with the US in the defense sector.
In contrast, bilateral relations between Greece and Iran have been worsening despite a long history of economic, social, and cultural ties. This is due to a combination of factors. The Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs singles out the vast array of international sanctions imposed against Iran as being a particularly important impediment to trade between the two countries.
Disputes concerning maritime security have also widened the fissure between Athens and Tehran. Both countries have accused each other of “piracy” following seizures of Greek and Iranian-flagged ships.
Threats to maritime trade
One area of immediate concern for Greece will be maritime trade. According to the International Trade Administration, “Greek shipowners control more than one-fifth of the world’s entire fleet” and the “Greek-owned fleet represents 59% of the total EU-controlled fleet.”
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has already affected seaborne trade. Most notably, the Red Sea crisis commenced on October 19, 2023, triggered by the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen launching missiles and armed drones at Israel, demanding an immediate halt to the invasion of the Gaza Strip.
The subsequent instability has impacted trade volume. According to one source, the container terminal at the port of Piraeus, near Athens, experienced a 12.7 percent decline in activity in January compared to the previous year.
Greece has taken a leading role in efforts to curb growing insecurity in the region. The European Union´s Naval Force (EUNAVFOR) Operation Aspides is now headquartered in Larissa. Additionally, Greece’s Hydra (MEKO 200 HN)-class frigate is participating in the operation to thwart Houthi attacks against trade vessels passing through the Red Sea.
EUNAVFOR ASPIDES assets work 24/7 to provide maritime security in the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Gulf under the EU Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP).@bundeswehrInfo @deutschemarine @ItalianNavy @MarineNationale @FFEAU_ALINDIEN @EtatMajorFR @hndgspio @NavyGR pic.twitter.com/0Wl2HJ6jsi
— EUNAVFOR ASPIDES (@EUNAVFORASPIDES) April 5, 2024
However, the Iran-backed group may increase the intensity of its attacks against international shipping now that tensions between Iran and Israel have worsened.
Shipping lanes in the Mediterranean also face a heightened risk. In December last year, Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander, Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, claimed that access to the Mediterranean Sea could be shut down if the US and its allies continued to support Israeli military operations in Gaza.
“They shall soon await the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, [the Strait of] Gibraltar and other waterways,” he reportedly said.
Iran does not have direct access to the Mediterranean, but it does provide funding and military support for various proxy groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and several militias in Syria. Given the limited maritime assets possessed by these groups, they would be unable to significantly restrict maritime trade, but they could cause disruption by targeting vessels or offshore assets with drones and rockets.
🇬🇷HS HYDRA is providing close protection to merchant vessels in transit in Bab Al Mandeb strait. @EUNAVFORASPIDES contributes to increase maritime situational awareness and safeguard freedom of navigation along sea lines of communication in the region.@eu_eeas @NavyGr pic.twitter.com/WoZwkGUmsT
— EUNAVFOR ASPIDES (@EUNAVFORASPIDES) March 18, 2024
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