Lenders continue to maintain a tough stance against the Greek government, aiming to extract guarantees for the period after the national elections, in order to engage the country and continue the payment of the next tranches.
The return date of the Troika to Athens is unknown, but have clarified that they will be leaving aside the primary surplus and seeking explanations as to why certain privatizations have not been carried out. They have also found that Greece is missing 13-14 billion Euros it needs to keep up with its loan obligations. Indirectly Greece will need to seek a new loan in order to repay these with a new Memorandum and new conditions, regardless of the results of the coming elections.
The projected financial shortfall of 14 billion Euros for the period 2014 -2015 points to the scale of the new loan which Greece needs, leading to the signing of a third memorandum. Greece on the other hand insists that the shortfall is closer to 11 billion Euros, and estimates it could be covered by unspent funds from the Financial Stability Fund (FSF).
Minister of Finance, Yannis Stournaras, stated on Saturday that “the Troika has not hardened its stance; it is the same from the beginning.” Auditors constantly avoid answering if they accept the equivalent measures that the Greek state proposes, he continued.
The Troika also insists that the revenue shortfall due to VAT reductions on catering will be almost three times higher than that estimated by the Greek government. It also disagrees on the amount of the shortfall from the reduction in employer contributions. The Troika estimates that the VAT shortfall will be 800 million Euros, while the Greek government puts them at 300 million. Similarly the Troika has put the employer contribution shortfall at 850 million Euros, compared to the Greek government’s estimate of 400 million.
With these issues still outstanding, approval of the next 6,7 billion Euro tranche to Greece (3,1 billion Euros from the EU and 3,6 billion from the IMF) is not expected before mid February.
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