Israel entered a period of political uncertainty after final vote counts confirmed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing bloc had lost its parliamentary majority, leaving rival parties facing potentially weeks of complicated negotiations to form a new government.
Israel’s Central Elections Committee announced on Friday that Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious alliance secured 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared with 48 for the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Arab-led parties won a record 19 seats, potentially giving them a decisive role in negotiations. Voter turnout reached 77.9%, the highest in decades, with more than 5.7 million ballots cast. The results await formal certification on November 4.
Arab parties emerge as key players in coalition negotiations
Netanyahu’s Likud remained Israel’s largest party with 27 seats, followed by Eisenkot’s Yashar with 21. However, the outgoing governing coalition, which previously controlled 68 seats, suffered substantial losses and now stands eight seats short of the 61 required for a parliamentary majority.
The opposition faces equally difficult calculations. Although Eisenkot’s 48 seats combined with the 19 held by Arab-led parties would provide a theoretical majority of 67, several opposition leaders have ruled out forming a government dependent on Arab political support. Democrats leader Yair Golan has urged his opposition partners to reconsider that position, while Naftali Bennett and other centrist figures remain reluctant to cooperate with Arab parties. Eisenkot and Bennett have already held discussions about establishing an alternative government, although no agreement has been announced.
In an analysis published Thursday, The Times of Israel editor David Horovitz argued that Netanyahu could remain in power despite losing his majority because his opponents lack a mutually acceptable coalition formula. Israeli political analysts have identified three principal possibilities: cooperation between opposition and Arab parties, a broad unity government involving Likud, or another election.
Netanyahu challenges Arab parties as pressure mounts on Eisenkot
The negotiations have been further complicated by allegations of foreign interference in the election. Netanyahu and members of Likud amplified unsubstantiated claims involving Arab-led parties, while Israeli media reported suspicions concerning possible Qatari involvement. Qatar rejected the allegations.
The Shin Bet domestic security agency is examining information about possible foreign interference, but election officials emphasized that the investigation does not undermine the results or implicate an entire community of voters. The Central Elections Committee has rejected claims of systematic electoral irregularities.
Netanyahu also declared that an alliance with Arab parties should not be formed, increasing pressure on Eisenkot over whether he would accept their parliamentary support. Demonstrators gathered outside Eisenkot’s residence in Herzliya Thursday, demanding political cooperation between Jewish and Arab parties to replace the outgoing government.
A separate development reported by Israel’s Ynet suggested that some ultra-Orthodox political figures were exploring alternative arrangements involving Eisenkot, although disagreements over military conscription exemptions remain a major obstacle.
President Isaac Herzog is expected to begin consultations with parliamentary factions after the results are formally certified Wednesday, November 4. The new Knesset is scheduled to convene November 10, potentially allowing opposition and Arab parties to cooperate in electing its speaker before a government is established.
Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister during negotiations. If successive attempts to form a coalition fail, Israel could face another election early in 2027, prolonging the political uncertainty that followed the country’s first national vote since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack.
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