Israelis head to the polls Tuesday, October 27, in the country’s first parliamentary election since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a closely contested race and opinion polls suggesting that neither major political bloc may secure enough seats to form a government.
The election is widely regarded as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership following three years of war, domestic political turmoil and growing divisions over responsibility for the deadliest security failure in Israel’s history.
The 77-year-old prime minister, who has dominated Israeli politics for nearly two decades, is seeking another term against an opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, whose campaign has focused on accountability for the October 7 attack and the government’s handling of subsequent military operations.
Approximately 1,200 people were killed in the Hamas-led attack, while 251 were taken hostage. Israel’s military response has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health authorities, and was followed by broader conflicts involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran.
Election polls show uncertain path to a majority
The final opinion polls published ahead of Tuesday’s vote indicate a fragmented political landscape, with neither Netanyahu’s governing alliance nor the principal opposition parties consistently reaching the 61 seats required for a majority in Israel’s 120-member Knesset.
Surveys published October 23 by Israeli television networks Channel 12, Channel 13 and public broadcaster KAN projected approximately 50 seats for Netanyahu’s existing coalition.
Channel 12 projected 56 seats for the principal Zionist opposition parties, while Channel 13 estimated 54 and KAN 52.
Eisenkot’s Yashar party was projected to receive between 22 and 23 seats, compared with approximately 19 to 21 for Netanyahu’s Likud. The opposition’s other major figures include former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, whose party was projected to secure between 14 and 15 seats.
The projections underline the possible importance of smaller political parties, particularly Arab-led factions, in determining whether either bloc can assemble a parliamentary majority.
However, Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious allies oppose cooperation with Arab parties, while significant differences among opposition leaders could also complicate negotiations.
What happens if Netanyahu fails to secure a majority?
Israel uses a nationwide proportional representation system in which voters elect party lists rather than individual constituency representatives.
Parties must receive at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter Parliament. A government normally requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers, although no single party has ever independently secured that majority.
Following the election, Israel’s president consults parliamentary factions and assigns the task of forming a government to the lawmaker considered best positioned to assemble a coalition.
The designated candidate initially has 28 days to negotiate an agreement, with a possible 14-day extension. If negotiations fail, the president may assign the task to another candidate. Continued failure to form a government can eventually lead to another election.
For Netanyahu, securing enough support to continue governing will depend not only on Likud’s performance but also on the combined strength of its traditional coalition partners.
His campaign has emphasized Israel’s military operations against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, presenting his leadership as essential to national security. His opponents argue that he should accept responsibility for the October 7 intelligence and security failures.
Eisenkot, whose son and two nephews were killed during military operations, has promised an official investigation into the circumstances surrounding the attack. Netanyahu has resisted establishing the type of independent commission demanded by opposition parties.
The outgoing prime minister also faces an ongoing corruption trial and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant relating to alleged war crimes, accusations he rejects.
The election follows large anti-government demonstrations, including a final rally in Tel Aviv on Saturday, October 24.
See all the latest news from Greece and the world at Greekreporter.com. Contact our newsroom to report an update or send your story, photos and videos. Follow GR on Google News and subscribe here to our daily email!
