Israel faced renewed political uncertainty Wednesday, October 28, after its first parliamentary election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, failed to produce a clear winner, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot competing to form the next government.
With 57.3% of ballot boxes counted Wednesday morning, Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc was projected to secure 55 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared with 49 for the principal opposition parties. Predominantly Arab parties accounted for the remaining 16 seats, leaving neither major bloc with the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority. The figures remained preliminary, with additional ballots, including those cast by military personnel, still to be counted.
Turnout reached 77.7%, the highest in more than two decades, reflecting the significance of an election dominated by the October 7 security failure, the subsequent wars in Gaza and across the region, and deep divisions over Netanyahu’s leadership. The vote also represented a setback for the outgoing governing coalition, which entered the election with 68 parliamentary seats.
Netanyahu and Eisenkot claim competing mandates
Despite the inconclusive result, Netanyahu declared his intention to establish another right-wing government, arguing that the election demonstrated continued support for his national security policies. His Likud party remained the largest individual party, while the prime minister emphasized Israel’s military operations against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.
Eisenkot, a former military chief whose Yashar party emerged as Likud’s principal challenger, offered a different interpretation, arguing that voters had rejected Netanyahu’s leadership. He called on the prime minister to leave politics and pledged to pursue a government capable of restoring public confidence and national unity.
The strongest gains came from predominantly Arab parties, whose projected representation increased substantially compared with the previous parliament. However, their potential influence over coalition negotiations remains politically contentious, as Netanyahu has ruled out relying on Arab parties and several opposition figures have expressed similar reservations.
Analysts warn of prolonged negotiations and another election
Political analysts interviewed by international media emphasized that the election’s central question is no longer simply which party finished first, but whether either bloc can assemble a viable parliamentary coalition.
The Financial Times outlined several possible scenarios, including a minority government supported by Arab lawmakers, a broad unity coalition or another election if negotiations collapse. Such arrangements would require significant compromises among parties divided over security policy, religion and the Palestinian question.
Writing in The Times of Israel, analyst David Horovitz argued that the inconclusive outcome could allow Netanyahu to retain effective political control in the immediate future, despite the substantial reduction in support for his existing coalition. Australian broadcaster ABC similarly highlighted the paradox that a fragmented opposition may struggle to replace the prime minister even after his governing alliance loses its majority.
Under Israel’s parliamentary system, President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders before selecting the lawmaker considered most capable of forming a government. The designated candidate receives 28 days to negotiate a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension.
Until a new government takes office, Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister. With the final allocation of seats still unresolved, Israel could face weeks of negotiations and potentially another election if neither political camp secures sufficient parliamentary support.
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