Hurricane Polo approached Mexico’s Baja California peninsula on Monday, September 28, 2026, bringing the threat of destructive winds and life-threatening flooding before a forecast second landfall on the mainland. The National Hurricane Center expects the storm to reach Baja California Sur on Monday evening and southern Sonora on Tuesday morning.
At 8 a.m. MST (15:00 UTC), Polo had maximum sustained winds of 115 mph (185 km/h), making it a Category 3 hurricane. Its center was approximately 85 miles (140 km) west-southwest of Cabo San Lázaro, moving northeast at 10 mph (17 km/h).
Hurricane Polo’s Forecast Path Crosses Peninsula and Mainland
Forecasters expect Polo to cross the peninsula, briefly pass over the Gulf of California overnight, and then reach northwestern mainland Mexico. The storm is forecast to remain near or at major-hurricane strength for its first landfall and retain hurricane strength when it reaches Sonora on September 29.
The NHC’s Monday morning discussion described conditions that could help Polo maintain its strength before reaching land, including low wind shear and warmer waters near the coast. Changes within the hurricane’s inner core could still cause fluctuations in intensity. Interaction with the peninsula and increasing wind shear should weaken the storm afterward, followed by more rapid weakening over the mainland’s mountainous terrain.
Warnings Cover Both Coasts and Parts of Sonora
Hurricane warnings cover Baja California Sur’s west coast from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe and its east coast from Loreto to Bahía San Juan Bautista. On the mainland, the warning extends from Bahía Kino to Huatabampito. Neighboring coastal areas are under hurricane watches and tropical-storm warnings.
Rainfall forecasts call for 6–12 inches across parts of Baja California Sur and 4–6 inches across southern and central Sonora, with isolated totals of 8 inches. The NHC warned of potentially life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly on steep terrain. Storm surge could flood coastal areas exposed to onshore winds, while large waves and dangerous rip currents threaten the shoreline.
Schools Close as Authorities Prepare Shelters
Baja California Sur authorities suspended classes in all five municipalities for September 28 and 29, along with state, municipal and federal government work. Maritime activities were also suspended, and officials arranged a command post in Comondú to coordinate the response.
The state identified 169 potential temporary shelters with capacity for 33,192 people. These include 111 primary facilities under Plan A and 58 backup facilities under Plan B. The figures represent available shelter capacity, not confirmation that every facility has opened. Activation depends on conditions.
Governor Víctor Manuel Castro Cosío urged residents to rely on official information and follow emergency authorities’ instructions. State officials also called on fishing communities in Mulegé and Comondú to secure equipment and prepare refuges as the storm approached.
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