The United States recorded its first net population loss from migration in at least half a century in 2025, with more Americans leaving the U.S. than entering it, according to a new report from The Brookings Institution.
Researchers estimate net migration fell to somewhere between negative 295,000 and negative 10,000 last year. The figure marks a historic shift from the immigration surge between 2022 and 2024, when millions arrived annually.
The sharp decline stems from two forces: fewer people arriving and more people departing. Border arrivals through humanitarian parole programs dropped from 1.41 million in 2024 to roughly 67,000 to 70,000 in 2025.
Green cards issued abroad fell more than 20 percent year over year. Refugee admissions collapsed from approximately 105,000 in 2024 to between 7,600 and 12,000 in 2025.
On the departure side, researchers estimate deportations reached between 310,000 and 315,000. An additional 210,000 to 405,000 people left voluntarily, largely in response to the enforcement environment.
Net migration goes negative for the first time in decades
The trend is expected to continue. For 2026, researchers project net migration could range from negative 925,000 to positive 185,000. The wide range reflects ongoing policy uncertainty.
The economic consequences are significant. With Americans leaving the U.S. labor force and fewer immigrants arriving to replace them, the monthly job growth needed to hold unemployment steady dropped sharply.
In the second half of 2025, researchers estimate only 20,000 to 50,000 new jobs per month were needed to keep unemployment stable. That figure could turn negative in 2026.
Consumer spending is also taking a hit. Researchers project immigration-related spending reductions of $40 billion to $60 billion in 2025, with an additional $10 billion to $40 billion reduction expected in 2026. The overall drag on GDP growth is estimated at 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points in 2025.
Americans leaving the U.S. takes a toll on the economy
The report attributes the shift primarily to stricter enforcement and reduced legal pathways under the current administration. Several federal datasets have not been updated since May 2025, forcing researchers to work with incomplete data, according to the Brookings Institution report.
Outside government figures, the cultural shift is visible on the ground. At a “Move Abroad” conference held in San Diego in May, roughly 600 Americans gathered to explore relocation options, double the attendance from the prior year. Among those surveyed, 89 percent cited political reasons for wanting to leave.
Researchers caution that the full economic effects of reduced immigration will not appear immediately. Businesses operating in immigrant-heavy communities are likely to feel the strain first.
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