Last Thursday, Sergei Shoigu made his final public appearance as Russia’s defense minister. Shoigui appeared dressed in his military uniform together with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Red Square.
Shoigu’s replacement is a seemingly unlikely choice. The new Russian defense minister is Andrei Belousov, a Soviet-trained economist with no military experience. He has served Putin in a civilian capacity in various economic roles.
Top government reshuffles in Russian politics are relatively rare. The appointment of a new defense minister likely indicates an upcoming shift in the way Russia is conducting its war effort in Ukraine.
Andrei Belousov appointed Russian defense minister
Born to a notable Soviet economist, Belousov began his career in academia before entering government service in 1999. Over the years, he has occupied several key roles, such as minister of economic development, economic adviser to Putin, and most recently, first deputy prime minister.
Throughout his tenure, Belousov has been a steadfast advocate for a strong state role in the economy, endorsing growth strategies centered on state investment, low interest rates, and supportive fiscal and credit policies.
Some analysts have suggested that by giving the role of defense minister to an economist, Putin intends to realign the Russian economy more closely with the war effort. As the conflict in Ukraine has continued, it has required an enormous input of Russian economic resources. Western sanctions have heightened the challenges posed to the Russian economy.
Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said the proposed appointment of a civilian for the role of defense secretary reflected the necessity for “innovation.”
What next for Sergei Shoigu?
Shoigu, who has been the Russian defense minister since 2012, is expected to take up a new role as secretary of Russia’s Security Council.
Shoigu had been facing increasing pressure in his role as defense minister due to a series of tactical and strategic setbacks in Ukraine. When Russia commenced its invasion in February 2022, it was widely expected—not just by Russia but also by Western intelligence agencies—that Russian military prowess would overcome Ukrainian resistance in a matter of weeks or months. However, over two years have passed since the “special military operation” was launched, and Russia has still not accomplished its objectives.
In 2023, Shoigu was embroiled in a public feud with Yevgeny Prigozhin, an erstwhile ally of Putin and chief of the Russian mercenaries, Wagner Group. Prigozhin openly lambasted Shoigu as well as other leading Russian military and political figures.
In June 2023, Prigozhin led a short-lived rebellion by the Wagner Group. The attempted coup was aborted and Putin’s government survived, as did Shoigu, but it exposed cracks in the Kremlin. Prigozhin later died in a plane crash in August of that year.
More recently, Shoigu faced further pressure due to recent corruption scandals in defense procurement. Last month, Russian security services detained Timur Ivanov, one of his top aides and the deputy defense minister, on corruption allegations. This development foreshadowed that Shoigu’s tenure in the role was likely coming to an end.
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