New research indicates that the Gulf Stream system might collapse by 2025. This vital ocean current, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to scientists, plays an important role in our climate. If it shuts down, it could lead to severe and catastrophic climate effects.
Scientists have previously identified that AMOC is currently at its weakest state in the last 1,600 years due to global warming. In 2021, researchers noticed alarming signals indicating that it might be approaching a tipping point.
The recent analysis shows that if global carbon emissions are not decreased, AMOC could collapse sometime between 2025 and 2095, with the most likely estimate being around 2050.
The Gulf Stream Collapse scenario is back on the cards, as early as 2025.
Think Day After Tomorrow pic.twitter.com/wtEwZE4kXs
— Ben Lumen (@BenLumen) July 25, 2023
Past instances of collapses in the AMOC have shown that temperatures could change by 10 degrees Celsius in just a few decades, but it’s important to note that these occurrences took place during ice ages.
Disastrous for India, South America, and West Africa
A collapse of AMOC would bring disastrous consequences worldwide, causing major disruptions in rainfall patterns that billions of people rely on for their food supply in regions like India, South America, and West Africa.
Additionally, Europe would experience more storms and colder temperatures, while the eastern coast of North America would face a rise in sea levels.
Furthermore, this collapse could pose additional threats to the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets, exacerbating their vulnerability.
“I think we should be very worried,” expressed Professor Peter Ditlevsen, from the University of Copenhagen in Denmark, who led the recent study. “This would be a very, very large change. The AMOC has not been shut off for 12,000 years.”
During the ice ages that took place from 115,000 to 12,000 years ago, AMOC experienced periodic collapses and restarts.
It’s noteworthy that this phenomenon is considered one of the critical climate tipping points that scientists are particularly worried about, especially as global temperatures continue to increase.
IT'S HAPPENING
combined-historical-AMOC-gulf-stream-collapse-estimates-dataset-analysis.jpg pic.twitter.com/5CfZC0LMiN— Neil (@Neil275) June 20, 2023
In 2022, research indicated that five dangerous tipping points might have already been crossed due to the 1.1 degrees Celsius of global heating experienced so far.
These tipping points include the shutdown of AMOC, the collapse of Greenland’s ice cap, and the sudden melting of carbon-rich permafrost.
Analysis of ‘saddle-node bifurcation’ tipping point
The recently published study, appearing in the journal Nature Communications, relied on sea surface temperature data dating back to 1870 to gauge the fluctuation in the strength of AMOC currents over time.
To understand the potential tipping point, known as a “saddle-node bifurcation,” the researchers compared this data to the patterns observed in systems that approach such a critical threshold. The results were surprisingly fitting, according to Ditlevsen.
Utilizing this information, the scientists projected when the tipping point might be reached. Furthermore, they conducted further statistical analysis to provide an indication of the uncertainty surrounding this estimate.
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