International media flirt more and more with the scenario of opposition party SYRIZA being the next government in Greece, in a way “forcing” banks, economists and analysts to prepare reports and examine the positive or negative economic effects of such a development.
In this context, Credit Suisse published a report entitled “Greece, don’t leave me this way.” Credit Suisse editors attempt to present a comprehensive analysis of developments in Greek politics and economy, following the political debate on the occasion of the vote of confidence and the market reaction to the attempt of Athens’ to exit from the Memorandum early. They estimate that SYRIZA will become government and will manage to reach a new agreement with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, however, it states that it will not be able to form a government on its own but by joining forces with other political parties, such as “To Potami” and Democratic Left (DIMAR).
Moreover, Credit Suisse estimates that SYRIZA will be driven to such an agreement since the belief that Greece may leave the euro and set the debt on its own is most probably a “fallacy.”
However, Societe Generale supports that the first quarter of 2015 will be crucial for Greece, the Eurozone, as well as the common currency. Societe Generale seems more fond of the current government, since, according to them, it “has made some achievements,” while on the other hand “An electoral victory for Tsipras will reintroduce a disintegration risk for the Eurozone.”
German newspaper “Süddeutsche Zeitung” reported that the current coalition government may have won the vote of confidence by a majority vote but the task of gathering 180 votes for the election of President of the Hellenic Republic is still extremely difficult and leaves the possibility open for early elections.