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Behind Giannoulias’ Poll

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Mark Kirk and Alexi Giannoulias

Alexi Giannoulias’ campaign staff spent the majority of yesterday afternoon leaking the results of an internal poll to reporters which showed Giannoulias leading Mark Kirk 49-45%. They also were quick to tout the fact that their polling numbers showed Giannoulias leading Kirk 57-33% among voters that describe themselves as moderates.

“Illinois families want a fighter who will fix the mess in Washington and bring new, good jobs to Illinois,” said Giannoulias. “Washington insider Mark Kirk has said he doesn’t think ‘unemployment is a big issue,’ proving that being in Washington for 10 years has led him to be out of touch with everyday families.

“Despite a deteriorating national climate for Democrats, Alexi Giannoulias is in a strong position to beat Washington insider Mark Kirk in November,” said Michael Bocian, the Alexi for Illinois campaign pollster.

Giannoulias’ campaign staff comments reveal that the campaign likely leaked the poll for two reasons. First, the campaign staff emphasized that Giannoulias was not being dragged down by his affiliation with the Democratic party and its rapidly diminishing reputation among voters.

The second reason for releasing the poll is that it gave the Giannoulias people a chance to hammer away at what will probably become the central narrative of their campaign: that Mark Kirk is a Washington insider.

The general election findings are based on a sample of 600 likely general election voters conducted February 9-14, 2010 conducted for the Giannoulias campaign. A sample of this size is subject to a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

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