Rebeca Grynspan has strengthened her lead in the race to become the next United Nations secretary-general, securing support from 12 of the Security Council’s 15 members in its latest informal ballot. The former Costa Rican vice president could become the first woman to lead the organization.
Grynspan received 12 “encourage” votes and three “discourage” votes in the eighth straw poll on Thursday, November 5, according to diplomats cited by Reuters. Her support increased from 11 votes in the previous round.
The contest will determine who succeeds António Guterres, whose second five-year term ends on December 31, 2026.
Why the permanent members hold the key
The Security Council’s straw polls allow members to indicate support, opposition or no opinion about each candidate. They are conducted privately, and the UN does not publish the results.
To secure the council’s formal recommendation, a candidate needs at least nine affirmative votes and no veto from China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom or the United States. The General Assembly then makes the appointment.
That means the significance of Grynspan’s three negative votes depends on who cast them. Opposition from an elected member would not itself constitute a veto; a permanent member could prevent her recommendation despite broad support elsewhere on the council.
Who is Rebeca Grynspan?
An economist and former vice president of Costa Rica, Grynspan became the first woman to lead UN Trade and Development, known as UNCTAD, in 2021. Her previous positions include associate administrator of the UN Development Programme and secretary-general of the Ibero-American Conference. UNCTAD says she is on special leave from April 1 to December 1, 2026.
Her diplomatic record includes work on the Istanbul agreements and the Black Sea initiative that enabled grain shipments to resume from Ukrainian ports after Russia’s invasion. UNCTAD credits her with a central role in those negotiations.
All nine UN secretaries-general have been men. This year’s contest also comes amid expectations that the next leader could come from Latin America and the Caribbean under an informal regional rotation.
Grossi follows as Turkey’s candidate enters the race
Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, placed second in the latest poll with nine encouraging votes. Guyana’s UN ambassador, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, received eight, while UAE diplomat Lana Nusseibeh received seven.
A recent entrant, Turkey’s nominee Feridun Sinirlioglu, received three encouraging votes, eight discouraging votes and four expressions of no opinion, The National reported. Sinirlioglu heads the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and previously served as Turkey’s foreign minister and ambassador to the UN.
The eight-candidate field also includes Ecuadorian diplomats María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés and Ivonne A-Baki, and Uganda’s Olara Otunnu.
Greece has a vote in choosing the next UN secretary general
Greece has a direct role in the selection through its 2025–2026 term as an elected Security Council member. It has a vote on the council’s recommendation, although it does not possess veto power. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis discussed the next UN secretary-general with Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye during September’s General Assembly meetings in New York.
The choice also matters for Cyprus, where the secretary-general’s diplomatic role includes efforts to bring the island’s two communities back to negotiations. Guterres has pursued a new round of expanded Cyprus talks, a longstanding challenge that will remain part of his successor’s agenda.
Greece and Cyprus oppose Turkish bid as UN succession process continues
The Turkish candidacy has also attracted particular attention in Athens and Nicosia because of longstanding disputes with Ankara over Cyprus, maritime jurisdiction and the implementation of UN resolutions. Cyprus is not a member of the Council but has a strong diplomatic interest in the appointment because the UN continues to oversee peacekeeping operations and negotiations concerning the divided island.
Athens has opposed the Turkish candidacy and maintained contacts with other Security Council members, including France, while coordinating diplomatically with Nicosia. Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis has emphasized that the next secretary-general must demonstrate consistent respect for international law and UN resolutions, particularly those concerning Cyprus. Athens has repeatedly criticized Turkey for its position on the island, where Turkish troops have remained since the 1974 invasion.
The latest vote does not formally eliminate his candidacy. Informal ballots are intended to measure support before the Security Council makes its official recommendation to the General Assembly.
Under UN rules, a successful candidate must obtain at least nine favorable votes in the Security Council without facing a veto from any of its five permanent members. The General Assembly subsequently appoints the secretary-general on the Council’s recommendation.
Sinirlioğlu is scheduled to present his candidacy during an interactive dialogue with the General Assembly on November 6, followed by consultations with Security Council members on November 9.
The next UN secretary-general is expected to take office on January 1, 2027.
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