A new peer-reviewed study has estimated that Greece experienced approximately 854 excess infant deaths between 2010 and 2020 compared with a modeled scenario in which the country had not undergone austerity of comparable depth and duration during its debt crisis.
The research, published in the journal Health Economics, examined the long-term effects of Greece’s economic adjustment programs, which began in 2010 under agreements with the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Using a method designed to construct a statistical “counterfactual” for Greece, researchers Robert J. Kolesar and Rok Spruk found that infant mortality was, on average, an estimated 43 percent higher than the level predicted by their synthetic comparison model during the post-austerity period.
The study does not claim that austerity directly caused each of the estimated deaths individually. Rather, it concludes that the Greek austerity episode as a whole was associated with a substantial and persistent increase in infant mortality compared with the trajectory the researchers estimate Greece would otherwise have followed.
A Decade-Long Effect
Before the financial crisis, Greece had one of the lowest infant mortality rates among OECD countries. In 2009, the country’s rate was about three deaths per 1,000 live births, according to the study.
The researchers used the synthetic control method, constructing a comparison Greece from OECD and Mediterranean countries that did not experience austerity programs of similar severity. The model closely matched Greece’s infant mortality trajectory before the intervention period, allowing the researchers to estimate the gap that emerged after 2010.
According to the study, the divergence appeared shortly after the austerity program began and persisted throughout the period examined.
The estimated mortality gap increased through the middle of the decade before declining somewhat toward 2020. However, the researchers found that Greece’s infant mortality trajectory had not returned to its modeled counterfactual path before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Using the difference between the actual and synthetic mortality rates and applying it to the number of live births each year, the researchers calculated approximately 852 excess infant deaths over the 2010–2020 period. The paper’s abstract rounds that figure to approximately 854.
Boys Were More Affected
The study also found that the estimated increase was greater among boys than girls.
According to the researchers, the mortality gap for boys was approximately 30 percent larger on average, with the difference varying over the decade. The paper links the pattern to the well-documented greater vulnerability of male infants during early life, although it does not identify a single biological or social mechanism responsible for the difference.
Perhaps more significantly, the researchers found that approximately 92 percent of the estimated excess deaths occurred during the neonatal period—the first 28 days of life.
That finding points toward early-life vulnerability as a central part of the estimated effect, although the available aggregate data did not allow the researchers to isolate precisely which elements of Greece’s economic and social crisis were responsible.
Health Cuts Were Only Part of the Picture
The austerity measures implemented in Greece were not limited to healthcare.
The economic adjustment programs combined reductions in government spending with tax increases and broader changes affecting public-sector employment, wages, pensions and welfare. The researchers therefore stress that their estimate represents the total effect of the austerity episode, rather than the effect of a single healthcare cut or policy decision.
Possible pathways included reduced health-system capacity and access to care, declining household incomes, unemployment and broader economic stress.
The study also addressed another major consequence of the crisis: Greece’s sharp decline in births. The number of births fell by an estimated 20 percent relative to the researchers’ synthetic counterfactual, while the birth rate declined by approximately 11 percent.
Because changes in fertility can affect how mortality rates are interpreted, the researchers conducted additional analyses and calculated excess deaths using the actual number of births recorded each year. They concluded that the decline in fertility alone could not explain the full size or persistence of the mortality gap.
See all the latest news from Greece and the world at Greekreporter.com. Contact our newsroom to report an update or send your story, photos and videos. Follow GR on Google News and subscribe here to our daily email!
