As Mediterranean wildfire risks intensify, Greece is shifting its strategy from fighting fires to prioritizing prevention. The country’s AntiNero program reflects the broader scientific debate of whether more effective forest management could reduce the impact of tomorrow’s megafires?
Every summer, images of forests in flames, smoke-filled skies, and exhausted firefighters dominate international headlines on Greece. As heatwaves become more intense and droughts more prolonged, many assume climate change is the simple explanation behind the country’s devastating wildfire seasons.
Climate change is undoubtedly at least partly fueling larger and more destructive Mediterranean wildfires. Higher temperatures, prolonged dry periods, and stronger winds create conditions in which fires ignite more easily and spread more rapidly. Yet scientists increasingly agree that climate alone does not adequately explain why many modern wildfires become so catastrophic.
In fact, another factor has quietly been reshaping Mediterranean landscapes for decades: the accumulation—and continuity—of combustible vegetation, known in fire science as fuel. Understanding that distinction helps explain why Greece has invested heavily in the AntiNero Program, one of the country’s largest wildfire prevention initiatives in decades.
Unlike traditional wildfire policies centered primarily on emergency response, AntiNero focuses on reducing fire intensity before flames ever appear. Launched in 2022 and supported through Greece’s national resources and the European Union’s Recovery and Resilience Facility, the program finances vegetation management, maintenance of forest roads, restoration of firebreaks, and improved access for firefighting crews.
Its philosophy reflects a critical shift in wildfire science and the belief that protecting forests begins long before the first spark.
Vegetation as fuel: The missing piece in battling wildfires in Greece
Wildfires have always been part of Mediterranean ecosystems. Many native species, including the Aleppo pine, evolved alongside periodic fires. What has changed is not the existence of forest fires but the conditions involved. For centuries, forests across Greece coexisted with villages, cultivated land, and grazing areas. Shepherds moved livestock through woodlands, families collected firewood, and agricultural fields interrupted continuous vegetation.
These activities were never intended as wildfire prevention. They were simply part of everyday rural life. Yet modern forest ecologists increasingly recognize that they also limited the accumulation of combustible vegetation. During the second half of the twentieth century, however, Greece underwent profound demographic change. Rural populations declined, traditional grazing decreased, and many agricultural lands were abandoned.
According to the OECD, these long-term changes contributed to increasing fuel loads (the amount of organic material available to burn) and greater fuel continuity across vast areas of the Mediterranean. Climate change has amplified the problem by creating hotter and drier conditions that allow this vegetation to ignite more easily and burn with greater intensity.
Climate thus largely determines when landscapes become highly flammable, but fuel availability and continuity strongly influence how intensely a wildfire burns and how rapidly it spreads across landscapes. Understanding both factors is essential to understanding today’s megafires.
Greece’s new approach to wildfire prevention
It was against this backdrop that Greece introduced AntiNero. Rather than relying almost exclusively on firefighting aircraft and emergency responses, the program seeks to reduce the conditions that allow small fires to become catastrophic. Supporters argue that carefully planned vegetation management can slow fire spread, improve firefighter access, and better protect communities, archaeological sites, and ecologically vital forests.
The objective is not to eliminate wildfires altogether. Fire remains a natural ecological process in many Mediterranean ecosystems. The objective is to reduce the likelihood that ordinary forest fires evolve into uncontrollable disasters.
This approach is not unique to Greece. Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, Australia, and parts of the United States have all expanded fuel management and forest resilience programs after experiencing increasingly destructive wildfire seasons. The common conclusion is that emergency response alone is clearly no longer enough.
A scientific debate
Nonetheless, AntiNero has also generated criticism. Some environmental organizations and scientists argue that poorly designed vegetation removal can affect biodiversity or disturb sensitive habitats if ecological principles are not meticulously adhered to. Forestry specialists respond that decades of limited forest management have left many Mediterranean forests carrying unprecedented fuel loads, increasing the risk of extreme fire behavior.
These positions are not necessarily contradictory. Modern forest ecology does not advocate indiscriminate clearing, nor does it support leaving wooded areas entirely unmanaged under rapidly changing climatic conditions. Instead, many researchers argue for carefully planned, science-based management that reduces hazardous fuel while protecting biodiversity and respecting the ecological character of each landscape. The debate is therefore not whether forests should be protected but rather how they should be protected.
Looking to the past
There is also a historical dimension to the discussion. Ancient Greek societies interacted continuously with forests through grazing, timber harvesting, agriculture, and the collection of firewood. These activities were driven by everyday economic needs rather than wildfire prevention, yet they also influenced the structure of Mediterranean landscapes. No evidence suggests that the ancient Greeks practiced wildfire prevention as it is understood today.
However, environmental historians note that Mediterranean forests were shaped for centuries by the interaction between people and nature. The lesson is not that the past offers a blueprint for the future. It is that healthy landscapes have rarely been entirely untouched landscapes.
Wildfires in Greece—a future built on prevention
No policy can eliminate wildfires entirely. As climate change continues to create hotter, drier conditions across southern Europe, catastrophic fires will remain a persistent threat. The challenge facing Greece is therefore not whether fire can be eliminated because it cannot be. It’s actually whether future fires can be prevented from becoming the devastating megafires that have repeatedly scarred communities, ecosystems, and cultural heritage.
Programs such as AntiNero should continue to be evaluated critically, improved as necessary, and guided by scientific evidence. At the same time, a growing body of international research suggests that relying on emergency response alone is no longer sufficient. Protecting forests in a warming world requires more than courage on the fire front. It also requires sustained investment in healthier forests, informed management, and long-term prevention long before the first sparks ignite.
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