Greece beat its fiscal target in the first half of 2026, recording a primary budget surplus of €4.48 billion ($5.1 billion), but most of the apparent overperformance resulted from delayed government spending rather than stronger underlying finances.
According to state budget execution figures, the primary surplus exceeded the government’s target of €1.953 billion ($2.22 billion) for the January-June period by €2.527 billion ($2.8 billion). The result was slightly below the €4.519 billion ($5.15 billion) surplus recorded during the same period in 2025.
A primary surplus measures government revenue minus expenditure before interest payments on public debt. Tax receipts also exceeded expectations, providing additional fiscal room ahead of the Thessaloniki International Fair, where the government traditionally presents its economic policy priorities.
Delayed spending inflated the headline surplus
While the headline figures outperformed expectations, much of the difference reflected spending that had been scheduled for the first half of the year but was pushed into subsequent months.
Several major payments had not been completed by the end of June. These included €81 million ($92 million) for defense procurement, €555 million ($633 million) in Public Investment Program spending, and €1.597 billion ($1.8 billion) in transfers to entities within the General Government.
Revenue figures also included a €135 million ($154 million) payment representing the second installment for the operating license of the casino development at the former Hellinikon airport site.
After accounting for those timing effects and the one-off revenue, the primary balance exceeded its underlying target by €159 million ($181 million).
Tax revenue tops expectations
Total tax revenue reached €33.919 billion ($38.7 billion) in the first six months of the year. The figure included €306 million ($349 million) associated with the Egnatia Odos concession agreement and €135 million ($154 million) from the Hellinikon casino license.
Excluding those extraordinary receipts, tax revenue amounted to €33.478 billion ($38.5 billion), exceeding the target by €679 million ($774 million), or 2.1 percent. June alone generated €5.888 billion ($6.7 billion) in tax receipts, €508 million ($579 million), or 9.4 percent, above the monthly target.
The stronger-than-expected tax performance provided additional support for the budget during the first half of the year.
Revenue exceeds target while spending remains below forecast
Net state budget revenue totaled €35.995 billion ($41 billion), surpassing the official target by €1.063 billion ($1.2 billion). After accounting for timing differences involving payments from the European Union’s Recovery and Resilience Facility, the revenue outperformance increases to €1.437 billion ($1.6 billion).
Government spending reached €36.936 billion ($42 billion), coming in €1.132 billion ($1.29 billion) below target. Expenditure nevertheless rose by €1.991 billion ($2.27 billion) compared with the first half of 2025.
The overall state budget posted a deficit of €941 million ($1 billion), substantially narrower than the projected deficit of €3.136 billion ($3.57 billion). In the first half of 2025, the deficit stood at €564 million ($647 million).
The figures indicate that Greece’s budget performed better than initially projected during the first six months of 2026, supported by stronger-than-expected tax collections and lower-than-forecast spending. At the same time, the composition of the results suggests that much of the apparent fiscal outperformance reflected the timing of government expenditure rather than an equivalent improvement in the underlying primary balance.
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