Three years after the devastating 60% decline of the world’s largest Dalmatian Pelican colony at Small Prespa Lake (also Mikri Prespa) in Northern Greece, researchers have reached critical conclusions regarding the loss of over 2,300 birds across Greek wetlands.
The research, a collaboration between the Society for the Protection of Prespa (SPP) and the Spanish research institute IREC/CSIC, revealed that the avian flu virus was likely introduced by migratory waterfowl (ducks and geese) arriving from northern climates. While ducks and geese carried the virus, they remained asymptomatic but transmitted the virus to the pelicans via droppings left on the small islands where both groups rest.
Interestingly, Great White Pelicans nesting alongside the infected colonies remained completely unaffected by the virus, as did colonies in Western Greece (Amvrakikos Gulf and Messolonghi lagoons), which escaped the outbreak. Scientists believe higher temperatures and water salinity in these areas may have inhibited the virus compared to the freshwater environments of the north.
Signs of survival and hope
Olga Alexandrou, a forester-ornithologist for the SPP, noted a fascinating physical marker of survival: cloudy corneas. Birds that have survived the initial infection often display a “foggy” eye, a sign they have successfully battled the disease and are now breeding again. Furthermore, blood samples from 2023 revealed that chicks possessed avian flu antibodies, suggesting that survivors are passing on immune protection to the next generation.
Despite such signs of resilience, the outlook remains cautious. The 2022 outbreak was the worst ecological disaster for wildlife in Greek history, wiping out 40% of the Southeast European breeding population—roughly 10% of the entire global species.
Recovery will be slow
Recovery is expected to take decades due to several compounding factors. Dalmatian pelicans reach breeding age only at three to four years old and typically raise just one chick per year, severely limiting population rebound. Environmental pressures have further complicated recovery efforts.
In 2023, extreme drought conditions allowed jackals to access nesting islands that are usually isolated by water, resulting in the loss of hundreds of chicks. At the same time, scientists remain on high alert for new and highly virulent strains of avian flu currently circulating in Western Europe, where more than 80,000 cranes have reportedly died.
“For large-bodied birds with these characteristics, it takes decades to recover from such a significant blow,” Alexandrou warns. “In this uncertain environment, we don’t know when Prespa will return to its 2022 level of 1,400 breeding pairs.”
Related: Lake Prespa: A Greek Eco Park Steeped in History
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