A new report by the Alexis Tsipras Institute challenges the Greek government’s portrayal of the last five years as an economic “miracle.” The study compares the periods 2015-19, often labeled a time of economic disaster, and 2019-24, described as a period of economic boom. According to the institute, Greece’s core economic indicators—growth, investment, wages, and unemployment—do not support the narrative of a dramatic turnaround.
Named after its founder Alexis Tsipras—the former Greek prime minister who led the Syriza party from 2015 to 2019— the institute produces data-driven analyses aimed at informing public debate and policy discussions on national and European economic issues.
FLASH Economy Analysis Series Launched
The report is the first edition of the institute’s FLASH Analysis | Economy series, offering concise studies of Greek and European economic trends. Using Eurostat (the statistical office of the European Union) data, the study tracks the evolution of key economic indicators through 2024, the most recent year with available statistics.
No Evidence of a Five-Year Economic “Success Story”
The overall conclusion: Greece’s economic performance does not justify claims of a recent success story. After the deep recession of 2010-13, the country gradually returned to positive growth, which continues today, though with variations. During 2015-19, exports grew faster, unemployment fell more sharply, and wages’ share of GDP increased. In 2019-24, wages’ share declined, while investment rose, but much of the investment did not significantly improve the economy’s productive capacity.
Greece has yet to recover the losses from the debt crisis, with GDP still nearly 15% below 2009 levels. Under these circumstances, labeling the economy as a “miracle” is misleading.
Growth Rates Show Limited Change
In 2023 and 2024, Greece’s economy grew at 2.1%, the same rate recorded in 2018 after exiting the bailout program, and slightly lower than the 2.3% in 2019. Recent years show little difference in growth rates between the two periods.
Private Consumption Remains Key Driver
Private consumption, the largest component of GDP, saw marginal differences between periods. It rose from 68.4% of GDP in 2014 to 69.3% in 2019 (+0.9 points) before falling to 68.7% in 2024 (-0.6 points). Greece’s consumption remains the highest in the EU, well above the 2024 EU average of 52.6%.
High consumption highlights Greece’s structural economic weakness. Growth continues to rely heavily on private spending, with the “productive model” unchanged despite repeated government promises of structural reform.
Investment Growth Shows Mixed Results
Investments (gross fixed capital formation) fell slightly from 11.2% to 11% of GDP in 2014-19 (-0.2 points) but rose to 16% in 2024 (+5 points), reflecting support from the Recovery and Resilience Fund. Despite this, Greece remains second to last in the EU, below the 21.2% average.
Examining 2019-24 investment composition reveals concerns: the total increase of €13.8 billion (2020 prices) was concentrated in housing (27%), other constructions (21%), and military and machinery equipment (23%), with only 15% in transport and IT equipment and 14% in biological crops and intellectual property products.
Problematic Investment Structure Undermines Government Optimism
Focusing on 2022-24, after pandemic-related disruptions, 87% of the €3.5 billion investment increase came from housing and construction, leaving all other categories—including military systems—at just 13%. Government projections for 2023-24 had expected investment growth over 15%, but actual growth was roughly one-third of that estimate, highlighting miscalculations.
Labor Market Performance: Modest Differences
Unemployment fell 8.7% during 2014-19 (Tsipras/SYRIZA era) and 7.8% during 2019-24 (Mitsotakis/ NEW DEMOCRACY era). Employment rose by 334,000 in 2014-19 and 346,000 in 2019-24, while unemployed declined by 430,000 and 367,000 respectively. Consequently, the unemployment rate dropped from 26.6% in 2014 to 10.1% in 2024, with faster decline in 2014-19 (-8.7 points) than 2019-24 (-7.8 points).
Income Distribution Trends Reverse
Wages as a share of GDP increased from 35.8% in 2014 to 36.8% in 2019 (+1 point), then fell to 35.6% in 2024 (-1.2 points), below 2014 levels. While absolute wages grew in both periods, their share of GDP grew faster in 2014-19 and slower in 2019-24.
Economic growth hides structural challenges
While Greece’s economy has returned to positive growth since the recession of 2010-13, GDP in 2024 ($243.50B) remains nearly 15% below 2009 levels ($326.83B). Investments increased in recent years, largely in housing and construction, but wages’ share of GDP fell to 35.6%, meaning workers are receiving a smaller proportion of the country’s total economic output. Private consumption continues to dominate the economy, underscoring ongoing structural challenges despite government claims of an economic “miracle.”
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