In its July 15 report, the Swiss multinational financial services firm UBS analyzes the potential direct and indirect effects of the proposed 30 percent US tariffs , announced by Donald Trump and expected to take effect on August 1, on Emerging Europe economies.
According to the analysis, Greece ranks fourth among emerging markets in the EMEA region (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) most exposed to the proposed US tariffs outlined under President Donald Trump’s renewed trade agenda.
Exposure Rankings – EMEA Emerging Markets:
- Hungary – Identified as the most heavily impacted, due to its substantial industrial export base and strong trade links with the US.
- Czech Republic – Highly vulnerable as a key node in global supply chains, particularly in the automotive sector.
- Poland – Faces significant exposure through its large volume of machinery and processed industrial goods exported to the US.
- Greece – Ranks fourth, primarily due to its concentrated export profile, which includes agricultural products (such as canned peaches and olive oil), pharmaceuticals, and chemicals.
Most affected countries
The nations with the highest share of exports to the US subject to the new tariffs are:
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Group A: Czech Republic, Poland, and Turkey (around 90 percent of exports impacted)
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Group B: Hungary, Greece, and the United Arab Emirates (60–75 percent affected)
Other countries are expected to face far less disruption. UBS simulations show that the most negative impact from a hypothetical 10 percent tariff increase would be felt in the Czech Republic and Hungary (25–30 basis points reduction in Gross Domestic Product [GDP]), followed by Poland and Greece (15–20 basis points), and Turkey and the UAE (10 basis points). The rest of the countries are projected to see effects below 10 basis points.
Structural challenges for Greece
As an EU member, Greece lacks an independent trade policy, which limits its ability to negotiate bilateral exemptions or tariff rollbacks. Furthermore, the small scale of most Greek export firms makes it difficult to quickly adjust logistics or sales strategies.
Greece’s export base is also heavily concentrated in a few sectors— mainly food, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals—making it particularly vulnerable to broad trade restrictions. While the US is not one of Greece’s top trade partners overall, it remains a key market for several niche, high-value categories.
UBS highlights that Greece’s adjustment capacity will depend on:
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the EU’s ability to negotiate targeted exemptions;
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how quickly Greek businesses can pivot to alternative markets (e.g., Asia or the Middle East);
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and whether companies can enhance the value-added component of their products to reduce tariff exposure or achieve strategic status.
Moderate impact in 2025; more noticeable by 2026
UBS projects a cumulative negative effect on Greece’s GDP amounting to -0.15 percentage points in 2026, placing the nation in a moderate position in terms of vulnerability among emerging markets in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). The expected impact in 2025 is milder at -0.1 percent, as immediate disruption to existing trade agreements is unlikely within the year.
The impact on the economy is expected to be mostly indirect, transmitted from a weakened manufacturing and export sector to reduced domestic demand and business investment. A potential decline in export revenues may also dent the profitability of publicly traded Greek manufacturers with exposure to the US market.
Greek GDP projections through 2027
According to UBS’s latest outlook, Greece’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.6 percent in 2025 and 2.3 percent in 2026, with growth slowing to 1.9 percent in 2027 under pressure from external headwinds.
In nominal terms, Greek GDP is projected to be $286 billion (€249 billion) in 2025 and $311 billion (€259 billion) in 2026 in US dollars. Per capita GDP is expected to reach $30,038 in 2026, reflecting Greece’s gradual convergence with the Eurozone average.
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