A surge in tensions between Greece and Libya is causing significant concern in Athens, as Tripoli strengthens its relationship with Turkey.
This deepening alliance comes amidst a continued, unabated flow of migrants from the Libyan coast, compounding Athens’ anxieties.
Energy deal between Libya and Turkey alarms Greece
Alarm bells rang in The Hague and Athens yesterday as news broke of a memorandum signed between Turkish oil company TPAO and Libya’s National Oil Company. The agreement greenlights seismic surveys on four plots in the maritime area between Greece and Libya.
While government sources claim they anticipated a move, initial relief was felt in Athens upon discovering the areas fall south of the median line, thus not directly impacting Greece’s sovereign rights. This, at least temporarily, averted another direct confrontation with Turkey.
However, concern remains high. During the Istanbul signing ceremony, a map of the controversial Turkish-Libyan memorandum was displayed, overtly signaling both countries’ intent to press claims that challenge Greek sovereign rights in the region.
This follows recent demarches from both Tripoli and Benghazi regarding the European Union’s publication of a tender notice for plots south of Crete in which Chevron has expressed interest. Diplomatic sources were quick to reaffirm: “In any case, Greece will not accept any violation of its sovereign rights.”
In response, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, in speaking from The Hague, announced he will push for the text of the European Council’s December 2019 conclusions, which declared the Turkish-Libyan memorandum unrecognized by the EU and legally ineffective, to be explicitly included in the conclusions of the EU Summit in Brussels.
Migrant flows from Libya to Greece intensify
Simultaneously, the number of migrants departing from the Libyan coast and arriving in Greece has sharply increased, creating a “suffocating” problem for Athens. The Greek side suspects a deliberate link between these flows and the escalating tensions. Mitsotakis hinted at this, stating, “The security challenges in the wider region are also linked to the instrumentalization of migration flows.”
An escalation of tension could further exacerbate the situation. In such a scenario, a planned visit by the Greek Foreign Minister to Libya to seek a solution to the migration issue hangs in the balance. While Greece has proposed three alternative dates, no agreement has been reached, and officials believe a worsening of relations would render the meeting meaningless.
Mitsotakis-Erdogan talks
Just before the new Turkish-Libyan agreement revealing Ankara’s regional ambitions was made public, Mitsotakis had a brief, ten-minute tête-à-tête with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the NATO Summit.
Sources indicate that such a short exchange, especially with translation involved, allowed for no substantive discussion. Instead, it served as a signal that high-level communication channels remain open and projected an image of “normality” in contacts between the two leaders.
According to sources familiar with Greek-Turkish dialogue processes, a substantive discussion between Mitsotakis and Erdogan would only occur if the core issue of maritime zone delimitation was on the table, a point from which “we are very far” at present.
The prevailing climate also complicates the holding of the Supreme Cooperation Council between Greece and Turkey, despite initial desires to find a suitable date. The assessment is that this will likely be postponed until autumn, making a summer meeting highly improbable.
Related: Greece to Deploy Navy Warships Near Libya to Prevent Illegal Immigration
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