Global oil prices plunged to their lowest levels in ten weeks on Monday, November 9, after President Donald Trump suggested that further American military strikes against Iran were unlikely, raising hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough that could ease disruptions to energy supplies from the Persian Gulf.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, fell as much as 7.9% to $90.56 a barrel, its lowest level since August 31, before settling 5.9% lower at $92.57. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 4.4%, closing at $86.85 a barrel. Both benchmarks continued falling in post-settlement trading, extending a sharp market retreat after months of volatility driven by the Middle East conflict.
The decline followed comments by Trump indicating that renewed military action against Iran was highly unlikely if negotiations toward ending the war continued making progress. Speaking to CNN, the president said the possibility of further strikes depended on Tehran agreeing to a sufficiently strong deal, although significant disagreements remain between the two countries.
Diplomatic expectations drive sharp market reversal
Oil markets have undergone a dramatic reversal as investors reassess the likelihood of prolonged military confrontation between Washington and Tehran. Brent had already fallen approximately 16% during the previous week, its steepest weekly decline since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Reuters.
The prospect of lower energy prices offers potential relief to refiners, transportation companies and consumers, particularly in Europe, where higher crude prices and maritime insurance costs have increased operating expenses during the conflict.
Nevertheless, analysts caution that diplomatic progress remains uncertain. Even without additional American strikes, any breakdown in negotiations could quickly restore the geopolitical risk premium that has supported oil prices throughout the war.
Strait of Hormuz attacks highlight continuing supply risks
Despite improving market sentiment, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains vulnerable to attacks. The strategically important waterway connects major Persian Gulf producers with international markets and normally handles approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption.
Britain’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on November 8 that a tanker traveling out of the strait had been struck by an unidentified projectile. All crew members were accounted for, and no environmental damage was reported. A separate report described another tanker on fire northwest of Khasab, Oman, prompting the evacuation of its crew.
Earlier, on November 6, UKMTO received a report of an explosion near the waterline of another tanker east of Khasab. The vessel remained operational, and its crew was reported safe. Maritime authorities have continued advising ships to exercise caution while investigations proceed.
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