Greece sold Japan $732.36 million in goods in 2023, with foodstuffs and processed tobacco dominating the trade, according to a new study of Greek exports. Foodstuffs accounted for $647.96 million, or 88.48% of those exports. A single processed tobacco product line made up much of that amount, leaving other industries with a comparatively small share of Greek sales to the Japanese market.
The research, published in the journal “Economies,” was conducted by Constantinos Challoumis, Nikolaos Eriotis and Dimitrios Vasiliou. Using figures from the Observatory of Economic Complexity, the researchers examined 356 exported product lines across 20 major categories.
Machinery was a distant second at $23.31 million, followed by chemical products at $20.44 million and metals at $12.63 million. Vegetable products and textiles each contributed about $7.6 million. Machinery alone covered 66 product lines but represented just 3.18% of export value.
Greece-Japan trade is concentrated in less complex goods
Foodstuffs covered only 28 product lines yet generated almost nine out of every 10 dollars in those exports. The study also identified smaller shipments of olive oil, prepared fruit and vegetables, and worked stone.
The researchers examined product complexity, an index based on the kinds of goods exported by countries around the world. Goods rated as more complex, including instruments and machinery, made up relatively little of the total.
When each product line was given weight, the basket’s average complexity score was minus 0.101. When weighted by the value of exports, it fell to minus 0.455, showing that sales were concentrated in less complex goods.
Analysis of individual product lines also found that more complex goods generally sold in smaller amounts within the same category. But that statistical link was marginal, and it weakened when very small shipments were excluded. A separate comparison of the 20 broad categories could not establish a reliable relationship between complexity and sales.
Foodstuffs dominance shows how a sector shock would affect sales
The concentration also provides a measure of exposure. A 10% drop in foodstuffs exports would reduce the total value of Greek goods sold to Japan by 8.85%, if sales in other categories remained unchanged.
That calculation does not show how quickly trade might recover from a disruption. Concentration alone does not prove the trading relationship is fragile.
The study examines only Greek goods exports, not Japanese shipments in the opposite direction or services such as shipping and tourism.
Although the European Union’s trade agreement with Japan took effect in 2019, the researchers said the 2023 figures cannot establish its impact. They called for multiyear research to test whether the pattern holds and how exporters respond to economic shocks.
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