Greece now borrows more cheaply than France despite its heavier debt burden, a reversal that reflects sharply different trends in public finances and government funding needs. On Tuesday, Greece’s 10-year government bond yield closed at about 4.29%, compared with roughly 4.50% for France, according to historical market data. France’s official debt agency separately put its 10-year constant-maturity rate at 4.52% that day.
The comparison is striking because Greece still carries the European Union’s largest government debt relative to its economy. Eurostat put Greek debt at 143.5% of gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 117.6% for France. But Greece’s ratio had fallen 9.4 percentage points from a year earlier, while France’s had risen 4 percentage points.
The European Commission expects those paths to keep diverging. Its May forecast put Greek debt at 134.4% of GDP in 2027, while French debt was projected to reach 120.2%.
How Greece borrows more cheaply than France
Budget performance also separates the two countries. The Commission estimated Greece recorded a government surplus of 1.7% of GDP in 2025 and forecast another 0.8% surplus in 2026. France recorded a 5.1% deficit in 2025, with the commission initially forecasting the same level for 2026.
France’s outlook has since weakened. Finance Minister Roland Lescure cut the government’s 2026 growth forecast from 0.7% to 0.5% on Sept. 11 and said its planned deficit of 5% of GDP could no longer be reached. “5% is no longer an option,” Lescure said. He also said debt-service costs were expected to reach 65 billion euros, 4.5 billion euros more than initially planned.
Greece, meanwhile, benefits from an unusual debt structure created in large part by its rescue programs. Its debt agency reported an average maturity of 18.28 years at the end of June and said the portfolio was effectively 100% fixed-rate after derivatives. European rescue-fund loans also carry exceptionally long repayment schedules.
France faces a much larger refinancing program
The scale of new borrowing is also different. France plans 310 billion euros of medium- and long-term bond issuance in 2026, net of buybacks. Greece announced an 8 billion-euro medium- and long-term issuance program.
France nevertheless remains more highly rated. S&P and Fitch rate France A+, while Moody’s rates it Aa3. Greece holds BBB ratings from S&P and Fitch and Baa3 from Moody’s, all within investment grade.
The yield crossover therefore does not amount to a reversal in sovereign credit ratings. It shows that current borrowing costs are also reflecting the direction of debt, budget balances, refinancing requirements, and the amount of new bonds governments need markets to absorb.
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