For the first time in recorded history, the world’s older population has grown larger than its number of young children. Researchers are calling it one of the most significant turning points in modern demographic history.
A new report from the U.S. Census Bureau found that the share of people aged 65 and older passed the share made up of children age 5 and under sometime around 2025, a shift decades in the making that only became visible in 2025.
The report, titled “An Aging World: 2025,” found that people 65 and older made up about 10.5 percent of the global population in 2025, or roughly 852 million people out of a total world population of 8.13 billion. That figure is expected to nearly double by 2060, climbing to close to 2 billion people, or about 1 in 5 people worldwide, researchers said.
Falling birth rates widen the gap between older population and young children
Meanwhile, the number of young children has stayed largely flat, since birth rates keep falling across much of the world. Researchers found that more than 71 percent of the global population now lives in countries where birth rates sit at or below replacement level, up sharply from 45 percent in 2013.
China’s fertility rate dropped to 1.06 births per woman in 2023, among the lowest in the world, while India’s birth rate also slipped below replacement level in 2022.
Researchers project that more than half of all population growth between 2025 and 2060 will come from people 65 and older, while the number of people younger than 20 will barely change.
The world’s total population, which crossed 8 billion in 2023, is expected to grow by more than 2 billion by 2060. Researchers said the gap between the older population and young children is likely to keep widening for decades.
Regional shifts emerge as experts push back on crisis fears
Asia is projected to add the most older residents in the coming decades, while Africa is expected to become the second largest source of that growth, eventually overtaking Europe’s share of the world’s oldest residents by 2060. Women continue to outnumber men at older ages because of longer life expectancy, the report noted.
People age 65 and older now outnumber children age 5 and younger worldwide for the first time, a demographic shift that could put growing pressure on Social Security, pensions, healthcare and caregiving systems. pic.twitter.com/Z1ugOeUzpD
— Tom Lorentz (@lorentz_tom) September 3, 2026
Andrew Scott, an economist at London Business School who contributed to the report, said the trend should not automatically be seen as a crisis. He called longer lives one of the greatest achievements of the past century, noting that for the first time, most people can now expect to live into old age.
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