The ongoing Middle East war has turned the past semester into a new energy and trade disruption, not only for Greece, but for the entire European Union (EU), according to a review by the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce and Industry (EVEP).
The disruption might be smaller than the crisis of 2022 at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, but it is still severe enough to overturn the initial economic forecasts for 2026, the report asserts.
In the words of Vassilis Korkidis, president of EVEP and vice president of the Association of Mediterranean Chambers of Commerce and Industry (ASCAME), the review confirms that the Middle East war “has been transformed from a military conflict into an economic factor from the beginning,” and points to the necessity for EU to shift towards “a more resilient, productive and competitive economic model.”
“Uncertainty has acquired a price. Europe and Greece need investments in energy and agri-food, but above all in the substantial strengthening of domestic and European production,” Korkidis observes.
What the Middle East War has cost to Greece and the EU
Combined data from the EU, ECB, IMF, ILO, Eurostat and ELSTAT, estimated the gross economic burden from the war at the end of the semester at 145 billion euro for the EU and around €3 billion for Greece, covering the period from the end of February to the end of August.
Although the extra economic burden for the EU does not constitute a direct loss of GDP, as it includes additional costs, loss of income and macroeconomic impacts, it is a reliable index for the volume of the total cost of the semester, the report notes.
The 3 million euro impact on Greece breaks down to 1.5 billion euro from increased energy costs; 600 million euro from loss of revenue; 500 million euro from increased transport costs and logistics; and 400 million euro from fiscal burden.
While inflationary pressure is estimated at close to one billion euro, it is not added to the total amount independently, as part of it has already been incorporated into energy and business costs.
The Greek economy continued to grow during the semester, with GDP growth estimated at 2 percent in the first half of 2026 and inflation decelerating from 3.9 percent in June to 2.7 percent in July. However, the austerity continued to limit the real disposable household income and increase liquidity pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
Greek shipping is the only sector that benefits from the crisis; on one hand, Greek coastal shipping is affected by the high prices of marine fuels, but on the other hand, Greek-owned overseas shipping benefits from higher fares, despite the increase in risks, insurance premiums, fuel costs and the duration of voyages.
Nonetheless, shipping revenues cannot compensate for the burden suffered by industry, trade, transport, tourism, small and medium-sized enterprises and households.
Increased energy costs have snowball effect on economy
The first and most immediate impact of the Middle East war was the rise in energy costs related to the restrictions of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a rise in the prices of crude oil, fuel and natural gas. In July, international prices remained around 30 percent higher than before the war, although they had receded from the extreme prices of the first weeks of the conflict.
Strait traffic trends lower#MarineTraffic data show vessel traffic declining across both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb on 25 August. The Strait of Hormuz recorded five confirmed crossings, down 28.6% day on day from seven. Two vessels entered the Middle East Gulf and… pic.twitter.com/dX8HDLBz6f
— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) August 26, 2026
For the EU, the estimate of the additional energy bill at the end of the semester is around 85 billion euro.
“Although Europe’s energy dependence has changed shape after 2022, it has not been eliminated. The increased use of LNG has reduced dependence on Russian pipelines, but has increased Europe’s exposure to global shipping routes and fluctuations in international prices,” the report explains.
The EU revised its growth forecast for 2026 downwards to 1.1 percent, with the new energy shock seen as a key factor in the slowdown. The IMF estimates that the war could shave around 0.5 percent off the eurozone’s GDP over two years.
Overall, the loss of real economic activity in the EU in the first six months of the war is close to 30 billion euro from decreased consumption, postponed investments, higher production costs and reduced competitiveness for European businesses.
Inflation forecast to further increase in 2nd half of 2026
At the same time, inflation remains a major threat and is forecast by the ECB to peak at around 3 percent in the second half of 2026, mainly due to the direct pass-through of higher oil prices to fuel, food and agricultural products.
Annual inflation up to 3.0% in the EU, 2.9% in the euro area. 📈
How does it compare across EU countries?
Learn more ➡️ https://t.co/9LpTXhKp3i pic.twitter.com/joMczAioCN
— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) August 21, 2026
The inflationary burden on the European economy is estimated at around 25 billion euro, through loss of purchasing power and increased operating costs.
In addition, higher freight rates, war risk premiums, delays and the need to maintain higher inventories add around 15 billion euro to the cost of transport in supply chains. Another 15 billion euro is estimated to be attributable to fiscal costs. The energy support measures announced by Member States by May alone amounted to 14.5 billion euro.
Therefore, resilience is becoming a key issue during these times of uncertainty, concludes Vassilis Korkidis.
“In Europe and Greece, energy diversification, investments in electricity networks and logistics hubs are urgently needed for a faster transition to a less import-intensive and more productive model,” he says. “Because in a world of continuous geopolitical upheavals, economic resilience is no longer just a policy choice. It is a prerequisite for growth and competitiveness.”
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