A growing IVF technology now allows embryo selection based on predicted traits, raising concerns among scientists who say the science is uncertain and oversight is lacking. The tests, marketed to prospective parents undergoing in vitro fertilization, claim to rank embryos by future health outcomes and characteristics such as intelligence or height. Researchers warn that the promises exceed what current genetics can reliably deliver.
U.S.-based companies, including Genomic Prediction, Orchid, Herasight, and Nucleus, offer the testing, known as polygenic embryo selection. The approach differs from established genetic screening used to detect single-gene disorders like cystic fibrosis.
Instead, it uses polygenic risk scores drawn from thousands of genetic markers to estimate the likelihood of complex traits or diseases developing later in life.
IVF technology for embryo selection is being marketed
Steve Hsu, a physics professor at Michigan State University and co-founder of Genomic Prediction, has argued that parents would naturally be interested in tools that improve their child’s chances of success. Surveys suggest some prospective parents share that interest. Scientists say interest alone should not justify clinical use.
Researchers who evaluated the tests using standard medical screening frameworks found the predictions highly uncertain. Modeling suggests the potential benefits are small, amounting to a few IQ points or a slight increase in height.
For many conditions, especially diseases that emerge later in life, outcomes will not be known for decades.
The limits stem partly from the data used to build the scores. Much of it comes from people now in their 50s and 60s who grew up in very different social and environmental conditions. Genes interact continuously with factors such as education, nutrition, healthcare and income, influences that genetic tests cannot measure.
Ethical concerns and social risks raise alarm
Scientists also caution that many genetic patterns reflect shared environments rather than biology alone. The scores are less reliable for people not represented in the underlying data, particularly those without European ancestry. In addition, some genes influence multiple traits, meaning selection for one outcome could raise the risk of another.
Ethical concerns add to the debate. Researchers warn that embryo selection could encourage beliefs about genetic superiority, increase pressure on children, and stigmatize those born without such screening.
The high cost further limits access. IVF cycles cost tens of thousands of dollars, with additional fees for embryo testing, placing the technology largely out of reach for most families.
Regulation in the United States remains minimal. There are no clear standards governing accuracy, transparency, or advertising, while countries including the United Kingdom, Germany, and France have restricted or banned the practice.
Researchers say stronger oversight is needed as IVF technology and embryo selection advance, to ensure medical progress does not deepen social and biological divides.
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