Greece is facing the prospect of a shrinking workforce and rising elderly population that would create a demographic imbalance the country will find difficult to reverse, according to a new report from the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies (IDEM).
The report titled “Demographic Aging, Working-Age Population, and Employment in Greece Towards 2050,” authored by Professor Emeritus Vyronas Kotzamanis, presents a sobering yet analytically grounded picture of future trends.
It focuses on the projected decline of the 20–64 age group—traditionally considered the working-age population—and its broader socio-economic ramifications. It also highlights the growing number of individuals aged 65 and above, a group typically viewed as economically dependent, though it stresses that this is only partially accurate, as many older individuals remain active in the labor force.
The decline in the working-age population is primarily attributed to long-term fertility contraction. Women from the pre-war generation had an average of 2.2 children, those born around 1960 averaged two, while the fertility rate for women born around 1985 dropped below 1.5.
These trends, coupled with a significant reduction in the number of women of childbearing age over the last 15 years, have resulted in sustained declines across successive younger cohorts—from the 0–19 group to the core productive age segments (20–44 and 45–64). Immigration since the 1990s has only temporarily slowed this trend.
In contrast, the 65+ population continues to grow, a legacy of the high birth rates before 1980 and rising life expectancy driven by declining mortality rates post-1950. The demographic aging process has been further accelerated by a persistently negative migration balance, as many young adults (25–45 years old), both Greeks and long-settled migrants, have emigrated from the country.
“Unfortunately, public discourse has largely focused on the “brain drain” aspect of this trend, ignoring the substantial departure of individuals with low to medium skill levels, which has left gaps in several economic sectors,” Kotzamanis says.
A future of fewer younger, more elderly population in Greece
According to the report, the 65+ age group will be the only one to expand in the coming decades, projected to represent over one-third of the population by the early 2050s, compared to 24 percent today.
Meanwhile, Greece’s total population is expected to decline by 1.3 to 1.5 million between 2025 and 2050, assuming a zero net migration balance—a reduction almost entirely due to the shrinking sub-65 population.
The most significant contraction will be seen among 20–64-year-olds, projected to decline by approximately 1.7 million over the next 25 years. This raises a key question: Can the number of employed people in this age group remain at 2025 levels (around 4 million) by 2050?
Two Possible Paths Forward
Kotzamanis proposes two strategies to address this challenge:
Raising Employment Rates Among the 20–64 Age Group
Greece currently has low employment participation, especially among women and people aged 20–29 and 55–64. If the employment rate among 20–64-year-olds increases from the current 67 percent to 82 percent by 2050, the decline in the number of employed individuals could be significantly mitigated.
Under this scenario, even with a decrease in the working-age population from 5.95 million to 4.27 million, the number of employed would only fall to 3.5 million—down by 515,000 from 2025 levels. This would result in a ratio of 1.1 employed persons per senior citizen (3.5 million to 3.15 million), compared to 1.6 today.
Maintaining a Modest Positive Migration Balance
A net migration gain of approximately 700,000 over 25 years (an average of 28,000 annually—modest compared to 40,000 annually from 1991–2010) could further alleviate demographic pressures. This would bolster the 20–64 age group and add around 500,000 workers, allowing the number of employed to remain stable at around 4 million in 2050. The worker-to-senior ratio would then be 1.24, compared to 1.64 today.
Importantly, Kotzamanis notes that such a migration balance would not only help economically, but also demographically, by increasing the share of younger, reproductive-age individuals (especially women aged 25–49). Without migration, this group is projected to decline by 465,000 (–28 percent) by 2050—an alarming drop that would further depress birth rates.
Call for policy reform
Even under optimistic scenarios, the ratio of workers to the elderly will decline from 164 per 100 seniors today to just 124 by 2050. This shift, Kotzamanis warns, will have significant implications not only for pension systems but for broader economic and social policy. Targeted interventions across multiple sectors will be essential, not just to mitigate but to reverse the negative consequences of demographic aging.
Speaking to the Athenian-Macedonian News Agency, Kotzamanis emphasizes that a country’s productive capacity does not rest solely on the size of its workforce. The “quality” of human capital—education, skills, and adaptability—is equally critical, as has been highlighted in repeated reports by the Bank of Greece, KEPE, and international organizations.
Related: New Data Reveals Greece’s Ongoing Demographic Decline
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