More than half of all adults and one in three young people (overall, half of the population) worldwide could be overweight or obese by 2050, marking a growing obesity crisis that experts say demands immediate action. A new study published in The Lancet warns that the rapid rise in obesity, especially in lower-income countries, could lead to severe health and economic challenges.
The study, conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, analyzed data from more than 200 countries.
The analysis indicates that the obesity crisis will intensify significantly by 2050 unless immediate measures are implemented to curb its advancement. Experts emphasize that in the absence of action, the prevalence of obesity will rise at a concerning rate, exacerbating the burden on global healthcare systems.
Rising obesity rates
By 2021, nearly half of the global adult population was classified as overweight or obese. The data shows that 1 billion men and 1.11 billion women aged 25 and older were affected. The number of men and women with these conditions has doubled since 1990, and projections suggest the trend will continue.
More than half of all adults and a third of children, teenagers and young adults around the world are predicted to be overweight or obese by 2050.
The findings come in a new study of global data published in The Lancet, the external
journal, covering more than 200 countries.… pic.twitter.com/5ccxPjH6MI— M.M. Dhoore (@dhoorebbc) March 4, 2025
If current patterns persist, experts estimate that 57.4% of men and 60.3% of women worldwide will be overweight or obese by 2050.
The highest numbers are expected in China, India, and the United States, where an estimated 627 million, 450 million, and 214 million people will be affected.
Obesity among young people
The study also highlights the growing obesity crisis among younger populations. Between 1990 and 2021, obesity rates among children and younger teenagers increased from 8.8% to 18.1%. The rate among young adults under 25 doubled from 9.9% to 20.3%.
By 2050, one in three young people is projected to be overweight or obese. This sharp rise in obesity among children and adolescents could place significant pressure on healthcare systems worldwide.
Dr. Jessica Kerr, co-lead author of the report from the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia, called the findings a real challenge for healthcare providers in the coming years.
Nearly 60% of adults 25 and up are projected to be obese by 2050.
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“But if we act now, preventing a complete transition to global obesity for children and adolescents is still possible,” Kerr said. “Our estimates identify children and adolescents in much of Europe and south Asia living with overweight who should be targeted with obesity prevention strategies.”
She warned that teenage girls in North America, Australasia, Oceania, North Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America are particularly at risk. Without intervention, obesity rates in these regions could rise sharply.
A global crisis that requires urgent action
“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” Professor Emmanuela Gakidou, lead researcher at IHME, described.
She urged governments to use country-specific data to identify high-risk groups and implement urgent treatment plans. She emphasized that those who are overweight but not yet obese should be the focus of early prevention efforts.
Medications such as Mounjaro, Wegovy and Ozempic have been introduced to help manage weight by suppressing appetite and controlling blood sugar levels. These drugs mimic natural hormones in the body to reduce hunger, offering an option for those struggling with severe obesity, though they often come with some side effects.
Experts stress that medication alone is not the solution. Public health strategies, including better nutrition education, increased physical activity, and government policies to regulate unhealthy food marketing, remain essential in combating the crisis.
Failing to act will lead to long-term health problems and major financial and social burdens for future generations.
With obesity levels rising at an unprecedented rate, experts agree that global intervention is necessary. Without significant changes, the world is on track for a costly and dangerous public health crisis by 2050.
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