NASA says an asteroid measuring up to 300 feet across could crash into Earth in 2032. While the agency says the chances of collision with our planet are extremely low, the impact probability has steadily increased since the rock was discovered.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, as the space agency calls it, was first reported on Dec. 27, 2024, and was first seen in Chile. Last week, NASA said there is a 2.3 percent chance that the asteroid will collide with Earth on December 22, 2032, based on current calculations. Despite the still-small impact probability, it has nearly doubled from 1.2 percent initially reported by the agency.
NASA has since said that, currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1 percent.
After April, the asteroid will not be visible to NASA until 2028
NASA said it will continue monitoring the asteroid from ground-based telescopes and cooperate with the International Asteroid Warning Network in a February 7 blog post. The agency explained that the asteroid will remain visible through April 2025, but will be too faint to monitor until June 2028.
The agency is also using the James Webb Space Telescope to observe the Asteroid through March 2025 and assess the space object’s magnitude.
While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/VWiASTMBDi pic.twitter.com/Z1mpb4UPaC
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 7, 2025
Crucially, NASA has also said that it is possible that “asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA’s asteroid risk list.” At the same time, it is also possible that the asteroid’s impact probability could rise.
NASA’s planetary defense initiatives
The space agency is aware of the danger an Asteroid like 2024 YR4 could pose to our planet and has already begun working on planetary defense initiatives. NASA started efforts to defend us from space threats in 2016 when the Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) was established.
This office is responsible for identifying significant extraterrestrial threats and coordinating defensive efforts.
So far, the most significant milestone in planetary defense, however, was achieved with NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission. This operation was launched in November 2021 and was the first mission designed to test a method of deflecting an asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it.
In 2022, NASA slammed an uncrewed spacecraft into the asteroid Dimorphos—160 metres wide and not a threat to Earth—to slightly shift its path. This DART mission’s success hints we might actually deflect an asteroid in a real emergency, though other methods remain untested.
Learn… pic.twitter.com/UrLJARTuqY
— New Scientist (@newscientist) November 10, 2024
This is exactly what happened in September 2022, when DART hit Dimorphos, a moonlet of the asteroid Didymos, changing its orbit.
A more explosive alternative to DART is the concept of a Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle (HAIV). This planetary defense initiative is designed for scenarios where an asteroid on an impact course is detected with short notice. In this case, HAIV would deliver a nuclear explosive device to the asteroid to deflect it.
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