Several parts of Greece, and in particular the islands of the Aegean, are bracing for drought as rainfall has been halved over the last decade and water reserves are being depleted, scientists warn.
Rainfall in many areas of Greece has decreased by up to a staggering 50 percent in previous months compared to the average of the last decade, according to research by the National Observatory of Athens network and the Meteo.gr team.
The research found a significant drop in total rainfall in most areas from October 2023 to April 2024, the period when most rainfall occurs in Greece. The only exceptions to the trend are parts of Epirus and Western Macedonia. The comparison was made with the average of the corresponding seven-month period of the decade 2012-2022.
Rainfall drops in the Aegean raising fears of drought
The phenomenon is adversely affecting water reserves while creating more favorable conditions for forest fires, but also leading to water scarcity in the Aegean islands and Crete.
Several Cyclades islands are running out of water. “The last year of plentiful rain in the Aegean was 2019,” says meteorologist Kostas Lagouvardos, director of research at the National Observatory of Athens. Last year was the third in a row with below-average rainfall.
“Especially in the Cyclades and southern Crete, which have the least rainfall [in Greece], 2023 was a bad year,” Lagouvardos adds.
On the island of Naxos, the two reservoirs held 375,000 cubic meters of water a year ago. They now contain 30,000 cubic meters, the island’s mayor says.
“While the rain is decreasing, water demand is increasing due to the tourist traffic, but also due to more holiday homes,” said Lagouvardos.
Summer 2024 predicted to be the hottest since 1993
This European summer is predicted to be one of the hottest since 1993, according to the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
Temperatures are expected to surpass 2.5 degrees Celsius above the averages for the corresponding periods from 1993 to 2016. This is the first time that no possible scenarios predict lower temperatures in any part of Europe.
The summer of 2022 is currently the warmest recorded in recent years.
Greece is among five countries that will be affected by drought in the Mediterranean region due to climate change, according to scientific forecasts published by the European Commission based on the European Drought Risk Atlas which assesses the consequences of water scarcity under the three scenarios of a 1.5, 2 or 3 degree Celsius rise in temperature over the coming decades.
The risk concerns agricultural production, availability of drinking water, the state of lakes and rivers, and the possibility of producing electricity from hydroelectric power stations. Annual wheat production in Greece is estimated to already be down by between 2.5% and 7.5% over the previous decades.
If the average global temperature rises by 1.5C by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial levels, the losses of wheat production in Greece will be 10 percent higher than those already recorded. The loss could rise to 20% if the temperature increase eventually reaches 3C.
Athens affected by drought and less rainfall
A recent scientific study showed that Athens will be the worst affected of all European capitals by future droughts and heatwaves.
Researchers at Newcastle University used all the available climate models (based on three scenarios) to predict how weather patterns will evolve into 571 European cities by 2050 or 2100.
The study predicted that some areas of the European South may experience droughts up to 14 times worse than today.
The five cities with the largest projected increases in drought are Athens, Lisbon, Madrid, Nicosia and Sofia.
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