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GreekReporter.comGreek NewsEconomyStratfor Report: 'Collapse of Greek Government Cannot be Ruled Out'

Stratfor Report: 'Collapse of Greek Government Cannot be Ruled Out'

8aa76019be47a0ab835e047d012f5e2bIn 2016, Greece will be far from exiting recession, unemployment will remain high and the government will face citizen dissatisfaction and social unrest, according to a Stratfor report.

“The government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras faces two main problems: political fragility and social unrest. The Greek economy has another year of negligible growth and extremely high unemployment ahead of it. This will lead to repeated protests and frequent conflicts within the government, which in turn will force the administration to slow the process of reform,” begins the report of the U.S. think tank.

According to Stratfor, a government collapse cannot be ruled out because the reforms that need to pass in parliament are too harsh and Tsipras’ fragile parliamentary majority may not be enough. A technocratic or all-party coalition might be the solution.
The report estimates that social unrest will be Greece’s main threat and not debt repayment to international creditors. However, the risk of Grexit in 2016 is much less likely than in 2015.
All bailout reviews will be tense since there is friction between Germany and Greece. Greece’s problems will remain through 2016. “Increasing resistance to reforms, initially among the public but then in the political sphere as well, sets the country up for another inevitable confrontation with its creditors down the line,” the report on Greece concludes.

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