When I was in high school, I had a math teacher who responded the same way every time my father inquired about my progress: He would open a small notebook, leaf through it, appear pensive and say, “He’s a good student, he just needs to study a little bit more.” It didn’t take long to realize that my math teacher would say the exact same thing to every parent who asked about their child. After a while, it was useless for any parent to go and ask how his kid was doing in math. We were all “good students”; we just had to “keep our books open” a little bit more.
Tuesday’s meeting between Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin seems equally pointless and had an equally-predictable outcome. Samaras pleaded that Greece is on track to economic and administrative recovery and asked for a debt easing; Merkel responded by saying that Greece is doing a good job but needs to keep up the hard work. Samaras expressed the wishes of the struggling Greek government for support; Merkel agreed that there are signs of hope for the Greek economy but did not commit to anything.
“I know what a difficult time the country is going through, but the first delicate green shoots of success are visible. Greece is now sending positive messages,” Merkel said after her meeting with Samaras. But she went on to demand that Greece continues with its administrative and economic reforms and budget austerity.
For his part, the Greek prime minister talked about what the recent primary surplus has achieved. But he failed to mention that the surplus figures he presented do not include interest payments on Greece’s sovereign debt. He said that the country can now stand on its own feet and doesn’t need a new support package. By the end of the year, Samaras continued, Greece may stop borrowing from the IMF and return to bond markets. But one wonders if that is possible in practice. Thus far, Greece has borrowed 240 billion euros from the troika of the IMF, EU and ECB, but the “delicate green shoots” Merkel mentioned appear mostly in balconies and gardens.
Dozens of small Greek businesses are closing every week. The country’s unemployment remains stagnant at 27%. Billions in outstanding debts are owed to banks, while two million citizens remain unable to pay billions in debts to security funds and taxes. The signs are grim, not green. Add to that the inefficiency of state mechanisms to collect from tax evaders and it is evident that, at this point, economic recovery is mere wishful thinking. Even if Greece were to stop borrowing from the IMF immediately, the higher interest rates from capital markets will add considerably to the sovereign debt.
It seems, then, that the Greek prime minister’s visit to Berlin was just a communication trick. He wanted to show the Greek people that he is going to Berlin to present the progress made. He wanted to publicize congratulations from Angela Merkel. But he was well aware that he was not going to get any tangible results; he was also well aware that rubbing shoulders with Europe’s most powerful leader is good for his image. By talking about primary surpluses and GDP growth for the first time in six years, Samaras wanted to tell Greeks that their sacrifices did not go to waste. What is more, by promising that Greece will soon get rid of the troika, Samaras sends a message of hope to frustrated Greeks. This timing is critical, as the opposition party SYRIZA now increases its considerable lead in polls and demands elections. And how did SYRIZA get that lead? By promising, once again, that they will get rid of the troika.
Samaras’s visit to Berlin had another significant parameter. It is widely known that SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras has often spoken badly of Angela Merkel and her austerity policies. His comments are even occasionally out of hand. It is apparent, then, that the German chancellor can serve as a useful ally in the battle between the Samaras government and SYRIZA. Just what Merkel’s stance on the coalition government is remains yet unclear, but one can speculate that it will carry weight in the coming days.
A quick look at Wednesday’s newspapers shows that the trick mostly worked. The government-friendly press lauded Samaras for receiving Merkel’s – admittedly reserved – praises. In the eyes of many Greeks, the Berlin meeting was a success for a government so pressed to fend off SYRIZA’s demand for premature elections. “Good student” Samaras has won valuable time.
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