The survey, conducted across all 28 EU member states, indicates a tight contest for the presidency of the European Commission between conservative Jean-Claude Juncker and socialist Martin Schulz.
According to the poll, of the 766 seats in the European Parliament, the right-wing European People’s Party (EPP) is predicted to win 217 while the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) is forecast to return 208.
Great defeat of the socialists
It is estimated that the EPP has a 74% chance of getting more seats than the S&D.
According to Doru Frantescu, PollWatch’s co-founder, President of France François Hollande and the French Socialist Party are to be blamed for the socialists’ losses in Europe. In France, the socialists are expected to win 16 seats, the conservatives 21 and the far-right National Front 20 seats.
In Germany, Chancellor Merkel‘s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will win 39 seats while the Social Democratic Party is estimated to win only 27.
In Spain, the right-wing People’s Party is also leading as the economy recovers and unemployment falls. Its leader Mariano Rajoy is expected to be a big winner in the euro elections.
As far as Poland is concerned, the Ukraine issue is expected to have a major impact on the election result. “The majority of Poles are concerned about their national security and trust more conservative parties, which have stronger policies in that domain,” says the lead researcher of the study.
Britain’ shuns centre coalition parties
Both parties in Great Britain’s coalition government are set to lose ground, with Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives (17 seats predicted) and junior partner the Liberal Democrats (3 seats) both predicted to finish behind the Labour Party (26 seats) and the new force in British politics, the anti-EU UK Independence Party, which is expected to double its share to return 19 MEPs to Strasbourg.
Far-right parties are expected to double their strength in the European Parliament and according to estimations they will win up to 130 seats.
SYRIZA victory in Greece
Greece is the only country polled where a left-wing party will take the lead. Alexis Tsipras, SYRIZA leader is expected to win in the elections.
The following map shows the results of the poll:
• the blue is for the right EPP,
• the red for the socialist S&D,
• the green for the European Green Party (EGP)
• the yellow for the Alliance for Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party (ALDE)
• the deep red for the European Left